Année 2010

FlightBlogger Aerospace Industry Fall Preview

When I sat down to think about the remaining thirteen and a half weeks of 2010, it became immediately apparent how pivotal this time will be for the future of commercial and business aviation. Decisions from Boeing, Airbus, Embraer, Bombardier and Gulfstream will shape the industry in 2011 and 2012 in the near term, but these same decisions could guide commercial and business aerospace for the next decade to come.

A Re-Engining Role Reversal for Airbus
With its re-engining decision [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien], Airbus believes it can breath 10 more years of life into the A320. History doesn't repeat itself, but it does tend to rhyme. While the 737-300 was re-engined version of the -200, [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien] were the continuations of a the stretched re-engined line against the nascent A320. While the analogy is not a repeat of Boeing and Airbus, today's battle pits Airbus in response to Bombardier working to re-engine the A320 to squash the CSeries in its tracks.
A re-engined 737-300, -400 and -500, while significantly better than the 737-200s, sold extremely well until its production run ended in 2000, as the 737NG took over against the A320 which steadily grew market share since its 1988 EIS. With all the airplanes Boeing and Airbus say the market needs [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien], a re-engined A320, just like the 737-300, -400 and -500, could give Bombardier just what it needs to find an a way in.

Delay Fatigue
After enduring years of delays from Airbus and Boeing on the A380 and 787, the industry's fatigue with such announcements is apparent. However, by almost all industry assessments, another shoe is set to drop for the 787 with an additional EIS slide, while Airbus's A350 schedule appears to be [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien]. While the remainder of 2010 may offer more clarity on the 787 schedule, Airbus's 2011 will be dominated by A350 preparations and big questions about the viability of the mid-2013 EIS date.
Additionally, a final schedule assessment on the 747-8F is due out shortly, and many industry observers expect [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien]. While the freighter is at the forefront, what remains unanswered is whether or not a schedule slide on the -8F translates into a slide for the -8I.

A Re-Engining for Renton? Probably Not
Is the re-engining the 737 dead? Maybe, maybe not. While all [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien] point to the demise of fresh powerplants hanging under the wings of the 737 Next Generation family. What Boeing [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien] with its narrowbody workhorse to remain competitive against the A320 NEO and CSeries is a point of much speculation. The cost benefit of keeping production, maintenance and engineering costs stable, may outweigh whatever small improved would be derived from new engines.
Boeing's faith in the 737 is firmly rooted in the backlog, which numbers over 2,000 aircraft. What happens to the growth of that backlog once Airbus launches the NEO will be interesting to watch, and will almost certainly prompt a response from Boeing to counter. However, the question remains: How big will that response be?

"Don't Worry" about the 777-300ER?
For the 777, Boeing has been much quieter, flying below the radar under cover of its Renton-built sibling. While the airframer has not totally disregarded the 305-seat market beyond its niche [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien], it's clear Boeing firmly believes betting on the larger 365-seat [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien] is its smartest gamble. With its public forecast of a 2017 EIS for the A350-1000, Boeing is banking on having time to decide.
Emirates CEO Tim Clark says [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien], but that's hardly consolation to Boeing. The future of the mini-jumbo will reveal itself before year's end, providing a look at the A350/777 landscape to come. Banking on tardiness is hardly a strategy, but the 777 may be to the A350 what the [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien].

P42 Powerplants
With the international debut of the G650 coming in October at NBAA in Atlanta, Gulfstream is quietly working on the P42, the [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien] large-cabin business jet line. While we're not likely to see a launch of the product could be more than a year or two away, a final decision by Gulfstream on what will power the P42 is expected in the near future.
While Rolls-Royce is [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien] from the competition, Pratt & Whitney's PW800 and [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien] are still in the running. Both powerplants are on the hunt for a launch customer and would give a significant boost for each engine maker's next generation powerplant to find its initial footing in the market.

E-Jet Enigma
Like Boeing and Airbus, Embraer is faced with a re-engining decision of its own. While it has [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien] of a larger fan under the wing of the E-Jet family as a result of the required modifications, a final decision is expected before the close of 2010. Embraer plainly admits the competitive landscape is significantly more crowded with the [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien] and MRJ coming into the fray.
Further, while a high-bypass fan intended for the Leap-X or PW1000G may not be right for the E-Jets, the NG34 may find another opportunity to directly replace the CF34s that power the fleet today. If Embraer forgoes re-engining altogether and advances a 110 to 130-seat design, the narrowbody market dynamics change rapidly with a direct clean-sheet competitor to the CS100.

Shadowboxing No More
"[Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien] That's the word from Bombardier on its prospects for landing additional customers for the CSeries this year. From the outside looking in, so much of this market is the expectations game. While Farnborough largely produced disappointment for Bombardier, its [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien] made it impossible for airlines to make an informed decision. Once the CSeries gets an opponent, someone should start keeping score.

M170: XRS Stretch?
On the other side of Bombarier's aviation business [url=http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/todays-paper/Bombardier mulls Global insider says/3531828/story.html]a will-they, won't-they[/url] debate is taking place at the large end of its business aircraft line. The largest, longest-range member of the family, the [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien], is faced with a choice [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien]. Stretch and re-engine the XRS or go all composite cleansheet to become the [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien]. Whatever the decision, Bombardier wants a to return fire at the [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien].

Wildcard: KC-X
I'm going to go ahead an put the tanker in a category of its own, primarily because it straddles the commercial realm with the A330 and 767. For the sake of argument, let's assume a (final) decision is expected before the year is out and that decision remains final. While the A330 has a sizable outstanding commercial backlog, the 767 was cannibalized (as intended) by the 787. A win for Boeing or Airbus on the tanker would breathe about 15 years more life into each product at a minimum. More likely than not, politics will win this next round