Airbus A380

BERLIN -- A huge order for the Airbus A380 from Emirates airline means the superjumbo has passed a key "acid test," but selling it to U.S. airlines remains a challenge, the chief executive of Airbus parent EADS NV said Wednesday.
Louis Gallois said in an interview with The Associated Press that the order from a customer which already has 10 of the hulking planes flying is "a clear indication for other airlines that this airplane ... is a winner."
That "means the acid test of delivering the airplane to an airline is successful," he said.
Airbus now has 234 firm orders from 17 customers principally in Europe and Asia - and not a single U.S. order.
Airbus is now be hoping for a smoother ride for the A380, which has suffered costly delays. The company has struggled to ramp up A380 production because the cabins of the hulking plane require greater customization than other plane models.
Selling the double-decker plane to U.S. airlines "is a challenge for us," Gallois acknowledged.
Airbus designed the A380 on the assumption that international airlines will need bigger aircraft to transport passengers between ever-busier hub airports.
Boeing Co. has taken a different approach, betting that airline passengers prefer point-to point transport.
Gallois spoke at the Berlin Air Show, where Airbus on Tuesday received an order for 32 more A380s from Dubai-based Emirates - meaning the airline eventually will have a fleet of 90. The order, by far the biggest at the show, represents $11.5 billion at catalog prices - although airlines often negotiate steep discounts.
EADS is also cheering the dollar's rise against the euro. it has been troubled by the euro's strength over recent years because its planes are priced in dollars although many of its costs are in euros.
The European currency has slid rapidly in the wake of the Greek debt crisis, and is now trading about $1.20, compared with over $1.50 last November.
"We are at a reasonable euro level, we are at the average historical price of the euro converted to U.S. dollar, and I think it's a level playing field for competing with American industry," Gallois said.
EADS' most eye-catching effort to compete is its upcoming bid against Boeing Co. for a Pentagon contract worth at least $35 billion to build 179 refueling jets - the latest round in a longrunning and politically charged battle.
The company said in April that it planned to make its own bid after its one-time American partner, Northrop Grumman Corp., backed out.
"We have found the partners we were looking for for sensitive equipment and now the team is complete," Gallois said, stressing that EADS will remain the primary contractor.
He declined to name the business partners.
Gallois also said the company still is considering the possibility of U.S. acquisitions in view of its "very positive" cash position.
"We have the capacity to make acquisitions, and the priority (is) the United States," possibly in areas of defense, security and services.
However, any such acquisitions depend "on the opportunities and I don't want to fix any time schedule for that," he added.
This year, Airbus hopes to get on top of two big projects that have been using up its engineering resources and bleeding cash - mastering the operational challenges of the A380 and finalizing contract changes with customers for the A400M military transport plane.
Gallois said "for the first time that we have complete control of the manufacturing process" for the A380 and that costs were within the forecast levels for the first time in the first quarter of 2010 - although they remain "too high."
The plane won't make a profit for years. Gallois said it will "deliver EBIT improvement and cash in 2014-15," referring to earnings before interest and tax, though that will depend on the value of the dollar.
American airlines "are not buying big airplanes, but the day when they have the capacity to do that, they will recognize as other airlines that it is the perfect answer to the traffic jams at airports and the perfect response to the increase in oil prices," he said.
RBS analyst Sandy Morris said American airlines are geared up to service point-to-point airports and aren't about to change strategy.
But he said "one day I think it's inevitable" they start looking at the A380.
"Point-to-point is a rather bull market strategy because it requires aircraft that are quite expensive" and consume a lot of fuel.
"Hub-to-hub is more robust in an average economy like the one we may have over the next few years," he said.
EADS presented the A400M to the public for the first time in Berlin.
It is still negotiating with the seven customer countries to finalize details of an agreement reached in March that allowed the over-budget and much-delayed project to continue. Despite government budget-trimming drives across Europe, all involved are "negotiating inside the frame" of the March accord, Gallois said.
He was hoping for a final deal "before summer, but perhaps it will be fall."
In a few years, "there is a strong potential for export, because this airplane is absolutely alone in the market," he said.

DayAfter a écrit:-Et la Lufthansa a redit qu'elle étudiait sérieusement l'accroissement de sa commande, bien ferme, de 15 machines avec 10 options.

DayAfter a écrit:-Nous avons tous été surpris par le nombre de 380 commandé par Emirates.

-On aura relevé que la question du "break even point" fut refoulée lors de la conférence à Broughton.

-De nombreux intervenants, depuis cette commande, ont posé la question " Comment EK va remplir ces A 380 ? "

-Et la Lufthansa a redit qu'elle étudiait sérieusement l'accroissement de sa commande, bien ferme, de 15 machines avec 10 options.

Frames that have Completed Build Stages: (These will be the next frames to be Convoyed)
MSN031 - China Southern #1
MSN036 - China Southern #2
MSN039 - Korean Air #2
MSN054 -China Southern #3
MSN059 - Korean Air #3
MSN060 - Emirates #16
MSN067 - Air France #7

Frames Currently in Build Stages:
MSN063 - Qantas #11
MSN068 - Korean Air #4
MSN072 - Lufthansa #9
MSN074 - Qantas #12
MSN075 - Korean Air #5
MSN076 - Singapore Airlines #15
MSN077 - Emirates #17
MSN078 - Malaysia Airlines #1
MSN079 - Singapore Airlines #16
MSN080 - Emirates #18
MSN082 - Singapore Airlines #17

The curious case of 90 A380s

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When John Leahy, Airbus chief operating officer customers, said in May that he would sell [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien], he knew the ace up his sleeve was coming from his most enthusiastic superjumbo customer. With 58 already on the order books, 10 of which are already in service, Emirates [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien] with the addition of 32 more announced this week at the ILA air show in Berlin.
While I will leave the virtue of an $11.5 billion aircraft purchase (at list prices) to others, the order itself deserves a bit of added perspective. A quick look at the math yields some interesting figures. With 489-seat and 517-seat configurations chosen for it superjumbos, the average A380 entering Emirates' fleet will generally have 503 seats on average. That's 45,270 seats worth of capacity set to be added to the airline's fleet between 2008 and 2017. 45,270 seats is the equivalent of 330 Boeing 737-700s or just ten fewer than Southwest operates in its fleet.
With all that capacity set to come into its fleet over the next seven years along with the 70 A350-900s and -1000s the carrier has on order, the Emirates 2017 fleet promises to look almost nothing like it does today. By time it receives its last of its latest order, the A380 will outnumber any other type in the airline's fleet.

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Just as a point of comparison, JAL, which at one point was the [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien], took delivery of 108 of the jumbos between April 1970 and October 2004. Those arrivals were a mix of nearly every model of 747 built, including the -100, -100SR, -200B, -200F, -300, -300SR, -400, -400D, -400SF and -400F.
Which leads me to a side thought: Did Emirates just quietly launch the high density A380-900 and A380F? Aircraft purchasing contracts allow customers model flexibility, especially ones that cover a delivery spread of nearly a decade.
Airbus was quite pleased with growing the A380 order book to 234, a 16% increase in total orders. Yet, there's an inherent risk to having nearly 40% of your backlog with just one customer. When the threat of a debt default by Dubai spooked the entire global economy last November, the rapidly growing carrier was arguably one of [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien].
The mind-boggling growth numbers from the Middle East make a compelling case for buying so many aircraft, though the airline industry has a destructive tendency to chase the up-cycle, adding capacity at an unsustainable rate, only to force painful production cuts back through to airframers once demand drops. Then again, Middle East traffic growth never went negative during the recession.
With RPK ( [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien]) - the measurement of actual passenger traffic - set to double in the next 20 years, makes you wonder whether or not Emirates is hoping to carry it all themselves.

Le président exécutif du groupe aéronautique européen EADS, Louis Gallois, a estimé dimanche que la récente commande de 32 Airbus A380 par la compagnie Emirates était un "vote de confiance extraordinaire" pour cet avion et un "présage très favorable pour son avenir".

2010 AFP

Jeannot a écrit:Des petits calculs sur les 90 A380s d'Emirates.

The curious case of 90 A380s

[Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien]

When John Leahy, Airbus chief operating officer customers, said in May that he would sell [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien], he knew the ace up his sleeve was coming from his most enthusiastic superjumbo customer.

Bien sûr, .... il le savait !

With 58 already on the order books, 10 of which are already in service, Emirates [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien] with the addition of 32 more announced this week at the ILA air show in Berlin.
While I will leave the virtue of an $11.5 billion aircraft purchase (at list prices) to others, the order itself deserves a bit of added perspective. A quick look at the math yields some interesting figures. With 489-seat and 517-seat configurations chosen for it superjumbos, the average A380 entering Emirates' fleet will generally have 503 seats on average. That's 45,270 seats worth of capacity set to be added to the airline's fleet between 2008 and 2017. 45,270 seats is the equivalent of 330 Boeing 737-700s or just ten fewer than Southwest operates in its fleet.
With all that capacity set to come into its fleet over the next seven years along with the 70 A350-900s and -1000s the carrier has on order, the Emirates 2017 fleet promises to look almost nothing like it does today. By time it receives its last of its latest order, the A380 will outnumber any other type in the airline's fleet.

Oui !

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Just as a point of comparison, JAL, which at one point was the [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien], took delivery of 108 of the jumbos between April 1970 and October 2004. Those arrivals were a mix of nearly every model of 747 built, including the -100, -100SR, -200B, -200F, -300, -300SR, -400, -400D, -400SF and -400F.
Which leads me to a side thought: Did Emirates just quietly launch the high density A380-900 and A380F? Aircraft purchasing contracts allow customers model flexibility, especially ones that cover a delivery spread of nearly a decade.

Nous ne l'avions pas attendu, pour cette réflexion !

Airbus was quite pleased with growing the A380 order book to 234, a 16% increase in total orders. Yet, there's an inherent risk to having nearly 40% of your backlog with just one customer. When the threat of a debt default by Dubai spooked the entire global economy last November, the rapidly growing carrier was arguably one of [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien].

Ceci avait largement débattu, "en son temps", notamment, quand Airbus a commencé à vivre rudement la "première crise Airbus A380" !
Cela fausse la donne, aussi, pour les motorisations !

The mind-boggling growth numbers from the Middle East make a compelling case for buying so many aircraft, though the airline industry has a destructive tendency to chase the up-cycle, adding capacity at an unsustainable rate, only to force painful production cuts back through to airframers once demand drops. Then again, Middle East traffic growth never went negative during the recession.
With RPK ( [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien]) - the measurement of actual passenger traffic - set to double in the next 20 years, makes you wonder whether or not Emirates is hoping to carry it all themselves.

[Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien]

Why did Emirates announce its massive [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien] order at ILA rather than the higher-profile [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien] next month? That was a question many were asking at an event that has been seen in the past as a rather parochial get-together for German industry.

There were two reasons. While the Dubai-based airline is already comfortably ensconced in the UK market, it is desperate to secure more lucrative German routes, including Berlin, where the regulatory and political environment is not so welcoming to potentially dominant foreign carriers.

Despite the temptation to delay the announcement to July, Emirates bosses figured the opportunity to impress German media and ministers, including Chancellor Angela Merkel, was too good to pass over.

[Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien] parent [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien] is also by far the biggest exhibitor at ILA, and through its influence with German trade association BDLI, in effect underwrites the whole event. The European giant was delighted to dominate the headlines at what it regards, with Paris, as one of its two home shows.

Emirates Airline president Tim Clark says the carrier is likely to need even more A380s than the 90 it has ordered so far.

Speaking to Flight International in the wake of the recent order for 32 more A380s for delivery between 2015 and 2017, Clark said that deal was “simply an extension of the growth strategy which have been doing successfully for quite a number of years”.

He adds: “When the going gets good again, if we haven’t placed our orders and bagged the positions for the aircraft that we want to do the job then we’ll be behind the curve when everybody else is doing it.”

And while the Dubai carrier’s huge A380 backlog has raised many eyebrows, Clark indicates that it may still have an appetite for more: “The mapping of the airline actually sees a lot more A380s needed than even that number, and I know that’s difficult for a lot of people to stomach.”

Emirates is flying 10 A380s configured with either 489 or 517 seats, and the type is popular, says Clark. “Whenever we fly the aircraft it fills up,” he says.

Report: Malaysian Airlines may cancel Airbus A380 order
Malaysian Airlines might become the first customer to cancel an order for Airbus' super-jumbo [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien] because of frustration over delays, Bloomberg [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien] Monday.
Delivery of the first of Malaysian's six ordered A380s is more than four years late, and the airline "cannot tolerate" any additional holdup, CEO Tengku Azmil Zahruddin told reporters Monday, according to Bloomberg.

A380 production revamps drives down out-of-sequence workload

[Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien] is confident that it has put the [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien]'s production woes behind it after the latest initiatives have seen a significant improvement in the completion state of subassemblies when they reach the assembly line, which has dramatically reduced the out-of-sequence workload.
The airframer struggled to keep output of the superjumbo on track last year as production issues combined with the complication of having to manage several customer deferrals caused deliveries to fall well short of target.
In total, 10 A380s were delivered in 2009 - two fewer than 2008 - but Airbus is confident that deliveries will more than double this year as monthly output gradually rises from two to three aircraft over the next 18 months.

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Alain Flourens, who heads the A380 programme, says that it became evident last year, as Airbus prepared to deliver the first "Wave 2" aircraft with redesigned wiring harnesses, that more changes were needed. These changes are now bearing fruit.
"We realised that a significant amount of additional work was needed to update the digital mock-ups [DMU], the design activity and the following manufacturing and engineering activities," he says.
"We enforced a very strict quality gate around the DMU, starting from the first step at the release of drawings for production - which means we have more coming out right first time."
The result has been an 80% reduction in the backlog of production drawings, while out-of-sequence work needed in Hamburg and Toulouse declined by half during the course of 2009. Airbus says that since the beginning of 2007, out-of-sequence work has been reduced by a factor of seven.
Flourens estimates that the A380's production lead time has fallen by around 40% over the past 12 months, while over the same period the number of displaced workers on the Toulouse assembly line has been halved to about 1,000.
A more recent initiative, dubbed "stop and fix", was implemented late last year. This requires workers to halt production to resolve problems rather than push them on to the next stage for later rectification.
The result of these initiatives is that, finally, A380 subassemblies have been arriving in Toulouse at the correct state of readiness, meaning they are configured for the power-on process when assembly begins, says Flourens.
Airbus is continuing to drive down outstanding work as the output level ramps up, which should see the number of displaced workers progressively reduced during 2010-11, he adds.
The handover process for the 525-seater has also been tightened up, with acceptance now typically taking around eight days - and sometimes just five. "This is a good target for such a big aircraft," says Flourens.

Giant steps – has the latest Airbus A380 production revamp worked?
The [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien] arrived to a huge fanfare in 2007 and is earning revenue for five of its launch customers. But frustratingly for the company, the same cannot be said for [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien], which more than five years after building the first A380 is still battling to overcome costly production problems that have blighted the programme since the start.
Last year, Airbus handed over just 10 A380s - two fewer than in 2008 and well below its target of 18 - as the ongoing production issues were amplified by delivery deferrals instigated by customers. Problems have rumbled on despite several drives to sharpen up processes, and by the beginning of this year Airbus management had clearly run out of patience.

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Louis Gallois, boss of parent [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien], warned that A380 production costs were "still significantly above expectations" while Airbus chief executive Tom Enders pointed out that the airframer had still not "come to grips with this complex aircraft" and that it would remain a "financial liability for years to come".
But the signs are good that initiatives implemented last year to address some of the fundamental problems are at last bearing fruit. Key performance indicators, such as the level of outstanding work carried downstream to the assembly lines, show a dramatically improved situation. So Airbus is now publicly confident that it can ship at least 20 A380s this year as output in Toulouse heads towards stabilising at three a month by early 2012.
The improved processes may also be good news financially, with EADS chief financial officer Hans-Peter Ring recently stating that A380 production should begin to break even by around 2015 on a "per year" basis. In the current US dollar environment, he says, EADS "could be in a situation...by the middle of the decade" where the A380 is "no longer weighing" on the company.
The A380's now legendary production delays first came to light shortly after the first flight in April 2005. A key element of the problem - issues in the design of the multitude of wiring harnesses that equip each A380 - was blamed on the over-reliance on virtual design tools - specifically the three-dimensional digital mock-up (DMU) that was used extensively for the first time by Airbus on the superjumbo. And it did not help that there was incompatibility in the design tools being used by different divisions within Airbus. (Significantly, Airbus has reintroduced the concept of having a physical mock-up on the [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien], to ensure it does not see a repeat of the A380 dramas.)
As the then Airbus boss Christian Streiff explained in 2006 when announcing one of several A380 production delays: "Quite simply, the wiring harness installation design package in the forward and rear fuselage could not keep pace with the rest of the aircraft programme."
While the production of all A380s was affected by the fundamental problems, these were particularly damaging to each customer "head of version" - ie the first edition of cabin specification.
In the first three years of deliveries Airbus has had to deal with six of these - one each for [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien], [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien], Qantas and Singapore Airlines, and two for Emirates. The Dubai airline has taken A380s equipped with two different cabin layouts seating either 489 or 517 passengers - the latter having additional seats on the main deck in place of the crew rest compartments.
So Airbus reinvented its A380 production process while in parallel rebuilding by hand airframes in Toulouse that had already been assembled. Design of the wiring looms has always been the responsibility of Airbus's cabin centre of excellence in Hamburg, which is also where installation in the forward and rear fuselage sections takes place during the equipping process in the major component assembly (MCA) hall.
The hall has the politically correct label of "FAL1" (or final assembly line one) with Toulouse - which is the A380's proper final assembly line - being "FAL2".
Key parts of the changes included "updating and harmonising" 3D design tools as well as the implementation of new management and training procedures. All Hamburg's A380 functions were consolidated under the full responsibility of a single manager, Rudiger Fuchs (who was subsequently replaced in 2008 by former A380 programme manager Mario Heinen).
To deal with the production problems, thousands of workers from other plants - mainly Hamburg - had to relocate to the Toulouse assembly line to undertake out-of-sequence work and modifications that should have been completed before the sections were transported.
Meanwhile, progress with the reinvented production process saw the creation of what Airbus dubbed "Wave 2" A380s incorporating redesigned electrical harnesses. But the signs were not good when the first Wave 2 aircraft (MSN026) reached the power-on milestone four months late, in April 2008. Airbus said at the time that it had not rushed the build effort as it did not want a repeat of the earlier problems.
But it seemed that every time Airbus thought it had the issues beaten, the programme would run into more trouble and the delays persisted. The result was that the 2009 output target, which at one point was expected to be more than 20 aircraft, was constantly revised downwards to the 10 deliveries eventually achieved.
Although Airbus remained bullish in the early part of last year that the issues were behind it, by the time MSN026 was finally delivered to its customer, Qantas, in August 2009, it was evident that Wave 2 had not delivered the hoped-for "silver bullet".
"Until MSN026 was delivered, we didn't see the full picture in terms of what would be the rework we needed to do on this aircraft," says A380 programme manager Alain Flourens. "We realised that a significant amount of additional work was needed to update the DMUs, the design activity and the following manufacturing and engineering activities."
The problems that arose from Wave 2 production process were tackled in various ways, he says. "We enforced a very strict quality gate around the DMU, starting from the first step at the release of drawings for production - which means we have more coming out right first-time. We have been through this process for all the heads of versions after MSN026."
The result of this initiative upstream of production has been a very good improvement in quality since the beginning of 2010. "The quality gate at each stage of the DMU is mainly 'green' now, whereas in the past they were more 'amber' or 'red'," says Flourens.
The colour defines the acceptable level of quality at each stage, so "green means we can proceed to the next step of the engineering process with no risk".
This has seen the production drawing backlog decline by four-fifths and level of outstanding work being undertaken in both "FAL1" and "FAL2" halved over the course of 2009 (see graphic). The out-of-sequence work has been reduced by a factor of seven since the beginning of 2007.

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"This translates immediately to the number of people working on the final assembly lines and the lead time," says Flourens.
He estimates that the more efficient production process has reduced the A380's lead time by around 40% over the past 12 months, while over the same period the number of displaced workers in Toulouse has been roughly halved to around 1,000.
The improvement in the quality of the DMU has also been helped by learning curve as more heads of version are completed. "Our knowhow has been increased," says Flourens.
Although the level of outstanding work is acceptable for the current rate of two A380s a month, Flourens says Airbus will continue to work to reduce it further as output ramps up three a month over the next year. The number of displaced workers will also be progressively reduced during 2010-11 in line with the production ramp-up.
While the DMU quality control had a dramatic improvement in 2009, late last year Airbus took further steps to secure the production process of its flagship programme with an effort to "change the mindset" of its teams, which chief operating officer Fabrice Bregier dubbed "stop and fix".
Implemented after further analysis of the production set-up, Flourens says this is a specific quality gate designed to establish whether the "deliverable, which could be engineering or physical", is achievable. "The process means that if you are not at the correct level, you raise the alarm and the whole team has to work around to find a solution as quickly as possible."
He says the problem remains where it is in the production or design process until fixed, whereas under the old system unresolved issues would move on to the next stage, thereby adding to the mountain of outstanding work.

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"This is a change of culture - both for the workers on the shop floor and in engineering - putting a lot of emphasis on doing it right first-time" rather than on keeping the production process moving and tackling the problem later, says Flourens.
Another change has been to do away with the sequential process and better integrate different parts of the organisation to help speed the reaction time to problems as they arise. "During assembly, we've organised regular visits to the aircraft by multifunctional teams comprising design and manufacturing engineering, quality and production people, to have a common vision," says Flourens, This has helped drive down the resolution time for queries substantially.
The much improved state of the assembly process is shown by the fact that the fuselage sections for latest A380 to arrive in Toulouse left Hamburg "closed and dark", meaning that all work was completed and they were ready to achieve the "M2" power-on status without additional modifications on the assembly line, says Flourens.
While some may argue that Airbus should have been quicker to address what appear to be basic production issues, Flourens points out that a key part of understanding how to tackle the over-complexity has come through experience: "As we drain the water inside the pool, we can now see different rocks that were hidden below the waterline."
The next two new A380 customers, Korean Air and China Southern Airlines, are due to receive their first aircraft in 2011. Flourens says that "the basics are now there" to ensure that the revised processes make the production of these heads of version much smoother, ensuring that the aircraft are delivered on schedule.
And even this final process has been the subject of an improvement effort, with the size and complexity of the A380 making customer acceptance a long-winded affair. "At the beginning it was a two-week process and we've got it down to eight days - and to five with some customers, which is a good target for such a big aircraft," says Flourens. "But it is still longer for a head of version."
So after five years of what Emirates boss Tim Clark described as "pulling teeth" for Airbus, the light finally appears to be insight at the end of the tunnel. And hopefully some good will come out of all the pain for Airbus's next big airliner programme, says Flourens: "We have transferred as much as we could of what we learned the hard way on the A380, onto the A350."

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Airbus has delivered Singapore Airlines’ 11th A380 and Lufthansa’s second A380 on Friday 16th July, taking the A380 in-service fleet to 33 aircraft.

These deliveries bring the year’s A380 deliveries by mid-July to 10 putting Airbus well on track to meet its full year’s target of at least 20.

The other A380 operators are Emirates Airline which has a fleet of 11, Air France with a fleet of three and Qantas with a fleet of six.

Together the five A380 operators serve 18 major cities worldwide every day.

The 31 A380s in service to date have clocked up 156,000 revenue flight hours in some 17,000 commercial flights and transported over six million passengers to 20 major international destinations worldwide in unequalled comfort.

A few years ago Christopher Nolan, whose current film Inception is turning into one of this summer’s blockbusters, directed a thriller about two rival magicians. Set in London at the beginning of the 20th century, The Prestige tells the story of how two magicians obsessed with creating the very best stage illusion engage in fiercely competitive one-upmanship. It all ends tragically.

In the corporate sector, [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien] have been engaged in a ferocious game of one-upmanship for leadership in the global commercial aircraft market. Airbus came from nowhere, challenged its US rival, and ultimately overtook it. Boeing’s head of commercial aircraft, Jim Albaugh, now says he is “very confident about how we are positioned to regain – and retain – leadership in this business”.

Mr. Albaugh on Monday pulled a plump rabbit out of his hat on the opening day of the [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien]. He announced that [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien] had won an impressive order for 30 of its 777 widebody airliners from Emirates, the Dubai-based carrier that is already the 777’s single largest customer.

• en bradant les prix, et en ayant recours à des astuces commerciales (par exemple, sans accusation ni procès d'intention aucune : possibilité d'octroyer aux clients des indemnités pour couvrir le coût excédentaire du kérosène, dans l'exploitation de ces Boeing avec ses moteurs d'une génération vieillissante ...., par rapport à la facture du carburant relative aux A350-XWB correspondants... ; réduction du prix facturé de l'entretien etc. ; "buy-back" à un bon prix d'occasion, au moment où le nouveau "Superbi-" (NG) de Boeing arriverait sur le marché, comme remplacement des B777-300ER....., avec des prix de lancement agréablement réduits pour une liste longue de clients de lancement ..... ; et qu'Emirates semble adorer ce genre de chose, en sa faveur..... , et serait très flatté d'avoir un 'grand Boeing fait sur mesure pour lui) ;
  

Boeing’s European arch-rival Airbus pulled a similar rabbit out of its hat a month ago by announcing at the Berlin Air Show it had won an order for 32 of its A380 super jumbos from Emirates. Once again, the Dubai airline also happens to be the single largest customer for the A380.

All this of course is great news for the industry. It suggests, as both Boeing and Airbus have been saying at Farnborough, that the civil aircraft market is recovering and that airlines and indeed aircraft leasing companies are again placing orders.

Although the world economy is not yet out of the woods, especially in the case of Europe and the US, there are pockets of growth in Asia and the Middle East.

The problem is that these recent new blockbuster widebody aircraft orders from Emirates may not be all that they seem to be. For there is a widespread suspicion in the market that they are not so much brand new orders but a repackaging of earlier orders placed by DAE Capital, the leasing arm of the Dubai government backed aviation financing and engineering group Dubai Aerospace Enterprise (DAE).

Back in the salad days of 2006 and 2007, DAE Capital ordered nearly $29bn worth of aircraft roughly evenly split between Boeing and Airbus as part of its ambitious efforts to become a big player on the aircraft leasing market.

Then the global economic crisis came along, the Dubai property bubble burst and the emirate found itself with a [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien]. That by no means put an end to the country’s aviation ambitions, but it nonetheless forced it to focus on its priorities – continuing to develop Emirates into a leading global carrier and building the new Al-Maktoum international airport.

A senior Dubai government official recently confirmed that DAE was renegotiating its order for more than 200 Boeing and Airbus aircraft. The trouble was that the bulk of these orders appear to have been for narrowbody aircraft such as the Airbus A320 and the Boeing 737 and these are of little or no interest to Emirates.

So what appears to have happened is a classic sleight of hand where what seems to disappear into thin air on one side reappears – hey presto – on the other. Except this time the magicians also seem to have transformed narrowbody aircraft into plumb widebodies.

And what, God forbid, should happen were such a valued customer as the Dubai flag-carrier itself disappear into thin air? No doubt the two great magicians of the civil aircraft industry would have to dig deep into their bag of tricks.

SEVRIEN a écrit:Bonjour / bonsoir chers tous.

Je reviens sur ce sujet, ayant espéré que quelqu'un d'autre mettrait ses pieds dans le plat. [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir cette image]

Eh bien, ... j'y vais.

Désolé ! Tout un texte de perdu ! Je recommencerai plus tard ! C'est fatigant ! [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir cette image]

CHEYENNE a écrit:En additionnant les flottes; exploitations et commandes pendantes d'Emirates et DAE, il y a un trop apparent ( pour autant que l'on connaisse le business plan refait d'EK ) de 70 à 110 avions Airbus et Boeing MC et LC.

Ce n'est pas Tim Clark qui décidera de la composition de flotte d'EK en 2012 et ensuite.

90 A 380 plus 136 B 777 (on peut retrancher 5 à 10 A 380 et 12 à 25 B 777) : plus de place pour récupérer des avions commandés par DAE en long haul; les affaires 737 et 320 sont autres.

Les 777 replacés par SIA ont donné des idées et n'ont pas fait les affaires en new built. SIA aime avoir aussi une flotte jeune.

Les nouveaux actionnaires d'Emirates et sociétés sœurs ont choisis de conserver MRO, formation et de ne pas déposer les garanties de paiements sur les commandes géantes DAE. Ceux qui prédisaient trop d'avions en commande sont à coté, sur ce dossier, c'est un choix des actionnaires; la crise de liquidité n'était pas la cause principale.

Garuda paie assez irrégulièrement ses loyers sur les 737NG DAE mais ces risques sont largement calculés avant conclusion; donc les avions loués à Garuda ( FlyDubai peut-être;..) trouveront preneurs.

Des 777-200 et -300 d'EK sur le marché de l'occasion ne seraient pas une grosse surprise et ne feraient toujours pas les affaires en new built chez Boeing.

Le business case recentré sur l'exploitation et l'ouverture de lignes aériennes d'EK.

Le super Bi éventuel de Boeing, remplaçant, n'est pas la première préoccupation de ceux qui tirent les ficelles chez EK.

SEVRIEN a écrit:Oui, bien sûr, GECAS, filiale de GE, devient client -- encore une fois -- de GE !

C'est une vaste plaisanterie que de présenter les choses ainsi, surtout que, dans le monde normal, en dehors de "Corporate America", les ventes du type "Conditional Sale" ('Refus de Vente' en français, ......) sont tout simplement illégales !

GECAS dit a ses clients, ...... "Si tu achètes mes moteurs ...., ou, plutôt les moteurs de ma maman, pour tes avions, .... que tu n'as pas les moyens de financer, .... je te financerai tes avions ! "

Bien sûr, ...... la version moins subtile (?) est celle de GE : "Si tu achètes mes moteurs, pour équiper tes avions, que tu n'as pas les moyens de payer, je dirai à ma fille, GECAS, de financer les moteurs et les avions ! Si tu ne choisis pas mes moteurs, je ne t'aiderai point à financer l'acquisition de tes avions ! " [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir cette image]

Sympa', n'est-ce pas ? [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir cette image]

SEVRIEN a écrit:Oui, pour Etihad, ...... l'affaire est vraie !

Le ridicule, dans cette affaire, .... est que ETIHAD aurait commandé des RR Trent 1000, pour équiper ses B787, .... tout comme il aurait choisi les RR Trent 900 pour ses A380 !

Mais, il a succombé aux pressions, de l'époque, de son grand voisin (Emirates) et, tout comme ce dernier, de "Corporate America", dans le but d'assurer une charge de travail en MRO, dans les facilités MRO qui sont implantés dans "l'ancien aéroport" de Dubai.

Le choix des RR Trent précités aurait conduit les opérations MRO jusque dans les ateliers de Lufthansa Technik et RR (dans le cadre de leur "Joint Venture").

Bien entendu, Dubai a promis de veiller à ce que les facilités MRO d'Etihad reçoivent, à Abu Dhabi, un niveau adéquat (garanti) d'activité MRO.

Bien sûr, ... même si GECAS n'apparaît pas forcément en première ligne dans le financement des avions d'Etihad, il est / sera dans la boucle ! [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir cette image]

The United States and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) enjoy a robust trade and investment relationship, much of which now has little direct relationship to UAE oil exports. Moreover, this is one of the fastest growing U.S. economic partnerships, both globally and especially in the Gulf region. The trade surplus in goods with the UAE throughout this decade reflects strong U.S. competitiveness in a number of sectors. In addition, the volume of U.S. exports and foreign direct investment into the UAE in recent years has grown dramatically and is likely to continue to grow in the future. This growth reflects the increasingly diversified UAE economy as well as its leading role as a modernizing influence in the Arab world.

U.S. goods exports to the UAE increased by 352 percent from $2.6 billion in 2001 to $11.9 billion in 2006. This is far greater than the 42 percent increase for overall U.S. exports around the world.

The UAE’s share in U.S. exports to the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which consists of the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman, doubled from 25 percent in 2001 to 49 percent in 2006.

The UAE is the single largest export market for U.S. goods and services in the Middle East, and U.S. exports to the UAE have expanded nearly five-fold from 2000 to 2006. In 2006, the UAE imported $2,571 of U.S. goods per capita, which exceeded that of many important U.S. trading partners including Kuwait ($821), Saudi Arabia ($330), Japan ($468), Germany ($501), Mexico ($1,287), and Israel ($1,558).
U.S. exports to the UAE originate from a wide variety of U.S.states. In 2006, the five largest sources were: Washington (33 percent), Texas (21 percent), California (8 percent), New York (6 percent), and Tennessee (3 percent).

U.S. foreign direct investment into the UAE has increased four-fold in the last few years, which reflects a strong vote of confidence by U.S. multinational firms in the UAE’s future economic and political stability :

To be exact U.S. foreign direct investment in the UAE rose 445 percent from at least $834 million in 2001 to $4,547 million in 2006. This far exceeds a worldwide increase of 63 percent in the same period and an increase of only 22 percent in Saudi Arabia.

The pace of UAE investments in the United States have also quickened. Recent examples include a proposed 20 percent share in NASDAQ, a 7.5 percent share in the Carlyle Group, an 8.1 percent share in Advanced Micro Devices, and a 4.9 percent stake in Citigroup.

Cooperation extends beyond the private sector. U.S. non-profit organizations are also expanding their activities in the UAE, including a Johns Hopkins University partnership in a new cancer treatment center and a New York University plan to establish a campus in Abu Dhabi by 2010.
This economic relationship will likely deepen further in coming years, given the UAE’s growing status as a regional business powerhouse, the high world price of petroleum and resulting high UAE growth rates, and the UAE’s continued political stability and sound economic policies.

The UAE is the largest export market for the United States in the Middle East.The U.S. trade surplus with the UAE rose over seven-fold from 2001 to 2006.
The UAE ranked as the 19th largest export market for the United States in the world.

The United States and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), have developed ever-stronger economic ties in recent years, with the growth of trade and investment among the highest of any major U.S. partner. This improved economic partnership reflects the UAE’s role as a regional leader in terms of economic reform, openness to international trade and investment, and political stability. President Bush’s choice of the UAE as a potential free trade agreement (FTA) partner with the United States is a testament both to the UAE’s economic strength and the U.S. desire to deepen this relationship.
Given the UAE’s role as a major oil exporter and the United States as a major petroleum importer, one might expect that these two countries’ economic relations would be dominated by petroleum. In fact, the UAE sends very little of its petroleum to the United States. The relationship instead is characterized by a set of high-value trade and investment activities that often have little to do directly with oil exports. There are a host of prominent examples of the depth of this economic relationship, many of which have occurred in 2007...

In December 2007, Dubai World, an investment arm of the Dubai government, purchased 5 million shares of MGM Mirage, increasing its share of the company to 6.5 percent.

In November 2007, Emirates Airlines detailed plans to buy 12 Boeing 777s worth approximately $3.2 billion. This order, along with previous sales, means that Boeing will, on average, deliver one airplane a month to Emirates Airlines for at least the next four years.
In November 2007, the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority announced a critical $7.5 billion dollar capital infusion into Citigroup. This will result in a 4.9 percent share in Citigroup, which had recently faced financial difficulties associated with subprime mortgage problems.

In November 2007, Jafza International of Dubai announced its intention to establish a new warehouse and transportation hub in Orangeburg, South Carolina. The "greenfield" facility reportedly would involve a $600 million dollar investment in a location with high unemployment and create as many as 5,000 new jobs.

In October 2007, Cold Stone Creamery of Scottsdale Arizona, in partnership with the Apparel Group of the UAE, made public its plans to open a retail outlet in Dubai’s Festival City. This was followed in quick succession by two further premium ice cream outlets in December 2007.

In October 2007, New York University, in partnership with the Abu Dhabi government, revealed plans to establish a comprehensive liberal arts university in Abu Dhabi. This effort, which will enroll its first students in 2010, will expand the influence of U.S. educational traditions, including adherence to principles of academic freedom and tolerance.

In April 2007, the UAE provided a major gift to support new research at the Johns Hopkins Hospital in Baltimore. This follows a February 2006 announcement that the Johns Hopkins University would begin a 10 year affiliation under which it would manage the UAE’s largest hospital and help establish a world-class center for cancer treatment.

In March 2007, Halliburton, a major player in the oil services sector, announced plans to move its corporate headquarters from Houston to Dubai. The move reflects the new importance of the UAE as an international center of oil-related business deals and is a vote of confidence for the business climate in Dubai.

These instances are particularly notable in that they occurred after the controversy surrounding the attempt of Dubai Ports World to purchase port facilities in the United States. That episode did raise concerns about the potential for long-lasting strains. However, the continued development of economic ties between the two countries suggests that the controversy did not fundamentally damage ties.

• du penchant de plus en plus fort d'Emirates & d'Etihad pour les gros porteurs d'Airbus (A380, A350-XWB, y compris la variante -1000, ..... même la possibilité de voir Emirates, dans un cas de besoin urgent de PUC, exercer l'option de faire le "roll-over" de sa flotte de A330....) plutôt que pour les actuels gros porteurs offerts par Boeing (même les B777-300ER, ..... au grand chagrin du partenariat Boeing / GE, pour toutes les raisons que nous avons déjà approfondies, et sur lesquelles nous n'avons plus besoin de revenir) ;
  


• du fait que Qatar avait déjà créé une perspective économique équilibrée entre les USA et l'UE dans la région (rien à tirer de ce côté-là, donc, étant donné, surtout, les retards accumulés et promesses non tenues / quasiment intenables avant longtemps, sur le dossier des 30 x B787 en commande ferme --30 options en sus -- à moteurs GEnx) ;
  
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• du besoin d'implémenter rapidement leur stratégie d'apporter des activités à forte valeur ajoutée dans cette zone du globe, sur laquelle ils avaient tant misé (par exemple, l'activité de MRO, au bénéfice des acteurs américains) ;
  
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• de la nécessité de développer vite les bases (durables) d'exploitation, visées dans les UAE, afin d'assurer les volumes des flux commerciaux / économiques vers et depuis les USA ;
  

• anticipation de l'impossibilité de DAE Capital d'honorer "à date" ses obligations (liées à ses commandes massives antérieures d'avions, avec transformation des monocouloirs -- B737 NG & Airbus famille A320-- en gros porteurs, qu'Emirates commanderait ; voir notre message ci-dessus) ;
  
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• reconnaissance par les Américains :
  
• --- du besoin de jouer "gagnant-gagnant" / "donnant -donnant" (il faut admettre qu'Airbus soit servi en A380, étant donné que les moteurs de ces derniers "seront" (que Tim CLARK et / ou les AL-MAKTOUM le "souhaitent" ou non ! ) des GP7200 de l'EA entre GE & P&W, ce qui est bon aux USA, pour la "balance commerciale"), ....
  
• --- et d'accepter que, de toutes façons, le B747-8I est le bide commercial par excellence, et commercialement 'mort-né' ;
  
• 
  
• (sans prétendre qu'il y ait eu des contacts entre les Dirigeants des Pays ou des Entreprises à ce sujet ! ), ... mise au point des arguments, le cas échéant, pour convaincre Airbus (qui doit / devrait convaincre les "politiques" de l'UE et des pays membres de celle-ci), qu'il s'en sort bien, tout comme les USA, ses acteurs en MRO, ainsi que l'activité MRO de la région -- Dubai, et Abu DHABI / Etihad -- ce dernier ayant déjà réduit / ralenti ses plans pour cette activité, pour "jouer le jeu" de Dubai, dont le projet MRO était et demeure colossal, et accepté d'équiper ses A380 de moteurs GP7200 de l'EA pour soutenir ledit projet de Dubai ;
  
• 
  
• la "négociation" (? : car, comme le dit ou implique CHEYENNE, ce n'est pas Tim CLARK (même avant 2012) qui a "négocié" cette affaire, ... quoique l'on dise ! ) de la commande de B777-300ER, ....
  
• --- qui ne correspond absolument pas aux besoins d'Emirates, "going forward", maintenant qu'Emirates a passé sa commande massive d'A350-XWB, .... mais qui, pendant un certain nombre d'années, bloquera les commandes futures d'Emirates en A350-XWB-1000, notamment (eh oui ; voilà le genre de saloperie qui vient polluer les eaux des affaires, dans ce genre de contexte) ;
  
• 
  
• le besoin de reconnaître le fait (réel ou potentiel) que RR soit "lésé" dans ce genre de perspective, .... d'où le soutien remarquable pour RR, donné par GE (et je n'ironise pas !) et d'autres Américains de bonne facture , dans le "lobbying" aux USA, en faveur du 2ème moteur (F136) qui devrait équiper les F-35, et qui est d'une autre dimension d'activité et de "rentabilité" économique (au sens large), sur une autre planète économique que quelques dizaines de moteurs RR Trent XWB ;
  
• 
  
• la commande de 35 x B787 supplémentaires , passée par Etihad, à être équipés de moteurs GEnx, .... qui favorise Boeing , GE et l'activité MRO des UAE !
  

Il faudrait qu'ils fassent attention, .... réfléchissent d'abord beaucoup, et qu'ils aient le courage d'étaler et d'étayer leurs arguments !

Mais la partie invisible de l'iceberg est tellement plus grande, plus vaste, plus profonde que la partie visible !