Delta Airlines : DL : DAL :

Delta to retire 'least efficient aircraft' as it smarts from $318m loss

Delta Air Lines is blaming escalating fuel costs for its $318 million net loss in the first quarter and says it is raising fares and retiring its "least efficient aircraft" over the next 18 months in an effort to compensate.
Boosted by higher fares, first quarter operating revenue rose 13% to $7.75 billion compared to a year ago. Operating expenses, however, were up 16% to $7.83 billion because of higher fuel costs, maintenance volume and employee wage increases. The company reported an operating loss of $92 million.
"Fuel is the biggest challenge facing this industry and Delta is actively reducing capacity, implementing fare actions, hedging our fuel needs and attacking our cost structure in order to offset fuel's impact on our earnings," says Delta CEO Richard Anderson.
The fuel bill increased by 29%, or $483 million, during the first quarter when Delta paid $2.89 per gallon for fuel with 41% of its fuel consumption hedged. That is expected to increase to $3.26 per gallon in the second quarter with 40% of fuel hedged.
The company attributed a $90 million shortfall in passenger revenue to "severe winter weather" and an additional $35 million loss due to the tsunami in Japan.
Delta plans to retire 130 aircraft over the next 18 months, which includes all McDonnell Douglas DC 9-50 and Saab turboprop aircraft along with 60 50-seat regional jets. The company expects that after Labor Day, system capacity will be down approximately 3% from a year ago. Trans-Atlantic capacity will be down 8% to 10% by the end of the fourth quarter.
"This was a particularly tough quarter for Delta, as we faced significant pressure on our business from rising fuel prices, the impact of events in Japan, industry overcapacity in the trans-Atlantic and mounting cost pressures," Delta CFO Hank Halter said in a memo issued to employees. "As a result we have a great deal of work ahead of us in 2011."

Delta’s RFP and Boeing

This past week saw something very interesting. Take a look here. According to Buckingham Research, as quoted in ATW, Boeing might not bid on Delta’s single aisle RFP. That is an eye-opener worthy of some consideration. Delta’s RFP states a requirement for 200 airplanes in the 737-700/A319 segment. Two hundred is big for anyone in the business.Why would Boeing pass on this opportunity? Delta is one the biggest airlines. And a very important Boeing customer. So let’s not get too far ahead on this idea.
We have reason to believe that Buckingham’s information is sound. However, there could also be something else at play. Remember the winglets on the 767 tanker? Boeing is masterful at controlling information flow. The information flow on the 737 replacement has been amazing – Boeing has kept the industry unsettled for a long time. Each time it publicly deliberates the choices it faces (re-engine or new design), they buy time. This time suits them because airlines hold back from buying decisions – Boeing is able to give just enough information to cast doubt on options available such as Bombardier’s CS and now Airbus’ NEO. So despite Buckingham’s information, we think it premature to count Boeing out of the Delta RFP.
Boeing will not comment on any customer interaction – the customer gets to talk first, and only then will Boeing say anything. And whatever it says will likely be typical Boeing – understated and circumspect. Just the kind of response that drives media and analysts crazy as they try to parse and tease out something.
Delta does want to replace a number of older airplanes in the 130 seat segment. It has a lot of these after acquiring Northwest. The airline clearly needs and wants to have a significant number of planes in this segment. Note that Delta is going to have a fight on its hands when Southwest (via AirTran) moves into Atlanta. Delta will want to lowest cost airplanes it can get. With fuel costs now accounting for ~50% of airplane costs, low fuel burn is among the top three things it will look for.
Delta has lots of Airbus and Boeing planes. So sticking with either means minimal retraining – the DC9/MD80/90 crews will have to be re-trained anyway. Airbus clearly is going to pull out all stops to win this deal. We understand Airbus’ A321neo is off to a good start as a potential 757 replacement. If successful, such a win will say something about the 737-900ER.
But the real race is the A319 and smaller/older 737 replacement. Here the race includes Bombardier’s CS. This is a new airplane and these days that makes a lot of people nervous. For Airbus, Boeing and Bombardier this will be a tough fight. We cannot see Boeing walking away from this fight. Its 737NG is a very good airplane and Delta is by all accounts pleased with its fleet of NGs.
The challenge is looking forward twenty years. The NG will age faster than the other offerings. The NEO is compelling in that it is newer and appears to be a low risk step forward – Delta has a lot of A320 family planes. They know it well, too. The NEO option has to be attractive because it has a number of features that are compelling – newer engines, quieter operation and significantly improved fuel burn. But Airbus wants a premium for the NEO and Boeing can offer a discount on the NG to upset that. Yet another reason not to dismiss Boeing.
Then there is the new kid in the fight. Bombardier also has a compelling offering. It is completely new – not a re-engine like the NEO. It is lighter and in many ways a clever option in this segment. On a per seat basis the CS promises what Delta (and others) are looking for. Low costs, great fuel burn, very quiet and small enough to go into small airports – crucially quiet enough to probably serve noise sensitive communities anytime of the night. For a legacy carrier like Delta, with its huge international reach, the CS would be a very good feeder plane for its global network. Sure there is a challenge in re-training. Bombardier has been accused by at least one competitive OEM of understating this cost. But in fairness to Bombardier, Delta is going to have a lot of re-training costs anyway as it runs down its MD/DC fleet.
For airlines you would expect the emergence of a new player to compete with Airbus and Boeing would be welcomed. As hard they compete with each on every order, a third player certainly keeps everyone at their peak. If Embraer can move forward with their own new airplane in this category the fight gets that much better for the airlines.
Which is why Airbus and Boeing would like nothing better than to squash Bombardier and Embraer’s ambitions. Their lives are complicated enough already.
If Boeing decides to withdraw from the Delta RFP, Bombardier’s competitive situation could be considerably be strengthened. Not a great thing for Boeing. Airbus will then of course attack the CS more aggressively than it has – and it has been by far the most anti-CS voice to date. After all, if it loses to the CS at Delta that would be a huge upset. Far greater than the loss at Republic. Airbus, to its credit, has great momentum with NEO. Certainly enough to ensure Airbus feels justified in continuing its campaign to describe the business case for the CS as over.
The stakes at Delta are very high. We expect that Airbus might win some business – particularly with the A321neo, which we feel is their best plane for this race. Boeing cannot be discounted because their NG is very good and could probably be priced to overcome perceived advantages the others have. For both Airbus and Boeing a concern is production slots – they don’t have any until 2015 or 2016. Delta is going to want to move sooner than that. (Patience is wearing at other airlines too) Which is why Bombardier cannot be dismissed because we believe it has the best airplane among the <130-seaters on offer. We would not be surprised to see it get an order when the dust settles.

US Airways is holding discussions with [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien] to supply its input to the airframer for the potential re-engining of the [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien], says carrier President Scott Kirby.

Addressing the MRO Americas conference on 20 April, Kirby says although the carrier is having
technical discussions with Airbus about re-engining, the carrier is essentially "agnostic" about how the airframers reach greater narrowbody efficiency.

Kirby acknowledges the "two differing opinions" in the [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien] geared turbofan and CFM Leap X that could potentially power A320s and [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien] 737s.
He believes the geared turbofan remains somewhat of an unknown quantity, and poses the question, "Will it be so sophisticated that it is difficult to maintain?"

But he also believes the [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien] CSeries powered by the geared turbofan has supplied Boeing and Airbus incentive to move quickly to offer customers improved efficiency in narrowbody aircraft.
"I'm glad to see some competition in this space," says Kirby.

Delta will decide on plane order by year-end

Delta Air Lines Inc will make a decision on buying planes by the end of the year, its chief executive said on Thursday

We'll make a fleet decision by the end of the year on mid-body replacement," CEO Richard Anderson said, adding that the decision would likely come before the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday in late November.
He cited some weakness in the U.S. [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien] but said Delta's forward bookings look strong.
"We're seeing some softening in the economy ... the indicators aren't what you would like them to be," Anderson told reporters after the company's annual shareholder meeting. He said Europe's economy was where he sees the most weakness.
Delta, the No. 2 air carrier behind United Continental Holdings ([Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien]), said earlier this week it expects a "solidly profitable" second quarter as higher revenues have for the most part offset rising fuel costs.
The airline sent a request to several plane makers late last year for proposals to deliver up to 200 planes to replace aging models. Possible orders could include large, medium and small single-aisle planes to be used on U.S. routes, Delta said earlier this year.
The head of Brazilian plane maker Embraer's ([Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien]) commercial aviation unit told Reuters last week at the Paris Air Show that he saw "good chances" of firm orders from Delta this year.

US airlines ready orders

There has been a rash of articles this week breathlessly focusing on US carriers and the prospect they will order airplanes this year.
This is no revelation, nor is the prospect that Boeing customers might line up and buy from another manufacturer.
We’ve written about this in the past. It appears to be time to revisit the topic.
American, Continental and Delta Air Lines signed exclusive supplier contracts with Boeing in 1996, effective for 20 years, so particular attention is on these carriers.Although the agreements still technically are in effect, as a condition for European approval of the Boeing-McDonnell Douglas merger, Boeing agreed not to enforce it. The airlines have honored it in the meantime.
Southwest Airlines, of course, has been exclusively Boeing since its inception in 1971 and had purchased more 737s than any other customer. If they buy non-Boeing airplanes, so the arm-waving goes, the world will fall in on Boeing.
Not hardly.
Let’s go down these airlines, one-by-one.
American Airlines
American has one of the oldest fleets in America. The sheer volume of aging airplanes–MD-80s, 757s and 767-200s–practically means no one manufacturer can reasonably provide all the airplanes needed to modernize in a short time. We know American to be unimpressed with the 737-900ER and favorably disposed toward the A321neo as a replacement for the 757 and 767-200ERs used on US trans-con service. The A321neo can also be used on thinly traveled trans-Atlantic service and Hawaii, routes that challenge the 739ER. This is an easy call: A321neo.
Replacing the MD-80 has been underway with American’s purchase of 737-800s, and American has already reduced the old airplane fleet by 100. Boeing could drop the price of the 737 even more to keep this business and with production ramp-up, deliveries can be accelerated. We think Boeing keeps this segment of the business.
Continental Airlines
An all Boeing customer with the naming of Gordon Bethune, a former Boeing exec, as CEO in the 1990s, Bethune is long gone and while many of his executives remain, Continental is now United Airlines with its large A319/A320 fleet and an order for A350s. The Continental management displaced the United management but the lead fleet planner told us directly now that there is a mixed fleet, Airbus will be very much in contention for new airplane orders. The size of the combined carrier is a very different proposition than the size of Continental. The “new” United hasn’t issued an RFP yet but we give Airbus a solid chance to win orders from the formerly exclusive-Boeing Continental management.
Delta Air Lines
A similar situation to Continental exists but somewhat in reverse. Delta was a member of the exclusive suppliers club and Delta was an exclusive Boeing customer. But Delta acquired Northwest Airlines, a major Airbus operator. The old exclusive-Boeing Delta management is gone, however, replaced by the old Northwest management that ordered Airbuses. Relations between this management and Boeing at at rock-bottom, largely over the 787 delays. Delta hasn’t canceled the order but it may as well have–the deliveries have been pushed out to the 2020 decade, which is infinity in airline terms. Delta is Airbus’ to lose. There’s no exclusive supplier bias toward Boeing here.
Southwest Airlines
This would be the earthquake blow to Boeing if Southwest buys from another, and CEO Gary Kelly and his executive team have been telegraphing for some time they are prepared to do so.
Fuel reduction is very important to Southwest, as are strides in reducing the environmental impact of emissions. Now that Southwest is buying AirTran and a second fleet type is coming in the form of the Boeing 717 (nee MD-95), Southwest has mentally accepted that one fleet-commonality is history. (Actually it has been since the introduction of the 737NG in 1998; this aircraft is 80%-90% different than the 737 Classics also in Southwest’s fleet.)
Kelly and his offices have said they are prepared to operate a third fleet type, an acknowledgement that they will have no choice since any advanced airplane will be markedly different than the 737. On a short-term basis, Southwest may be prepared to operate a fourth type until one series can be retired.
Kelly has on several occasions said words to the effect, “Airbus has a solution; Bombardier has a solution; Boeing does not have a solution and waiting until 2019 isn’t a solution, it’s only a promise.”
Southwest isn’t especially keen on the A320neo solution because it is, after all, only a compromise airplane. Its promised EIS is late 2015 (with the first available delivery slots now in 2018 after the orgy of orders at the Paris Air Show), so availablility vis-a-vis the Boeing Promise is now only marginally better. If Airbus could delivery the neo from 2016 (a possibility if Airbus increases production rates again), Southwest might be ready to jump. We consider this still a long shot at the moment.
Bombardier is the only manufacturer with a new airplane and the CS300 is perfectly sized to replace 25 737-500s and the incoming 86 717s from AirTran. BBD is now sold out into 2016, and it needs a 150-seat CS500 to be a serious contender to replace the 175 737-300s which carry 137 passengers in Southwest’s configuration. Southwest would like to upsize this airplane slightly and the CS300 can accommodate 149 passengers only by reducing seat pitch to 30 inches. This is OK for most airlines but Southwest is pretty firm that it wants 32 inches for passenger comfort.
A CS500 would require major investment by BBD and EIS wouldn’t be until 2017, reducing the interval to the Boeing Promise. Still, NPV analysis would be in BBD’s favor.
The outcome at Southwest: we think there is a reasonable chance BBD could win a CS300 order. The neo is probably longer odds because it is a compromise airplane. If Boeing re-engines, neo has no chance and a 737-700RE, which will deficient on operating economics vs. CS300, will be close enough so that Southwest probably would stay in the family

Jeannot a écrit:Leeham News lit dans le marc de café pour essayer de révoir les choix des principales compagnies US...

US airlines ready orders

There has been a rash of articles this week breathlessly focusing on US carriers and the prospect they will order airplanes this year.
This is no revelation, nor is the prospect that Boeing customers might line up and buy from another manufacturer.
We’ve written about this in the past. It appears to be time to revisit the topic.

American, Continental and Delta Air Lines signed exclusive supplier contracts with Boeing in 1996, effective for 20 years, so particular attention is on these carriers. Although the agreements still technically are in effect, as a condition for European approval of the Boeing-McDonnell Douglas merger, Boeing agreed not to enforce it. The airlines have honored it in the meantime.

Southwest Airlines, of course, has been exclusively Boeing since its inception in 1971 and had purchased more 737s than any other customer. If they buy non-Boeing airplanes, so the arm-waving goes, the world will fall in on Boeing.
Not hardly.
Let’s go down these airlines, one-by-one.

American Airlines

American has one of the oldest fleets in America. The sheer volume of aging airplanes–MD-80s, 757s and 767-200s–practically means no one manufacturer can reasonably provide all the airplanes needed to modernize in a short time. We know American to be unimpressed with the 737-900ER and favorably disposed toward the A321neo as a replacement for the 757 and 767-200ERs used on US trans-con service. The A321neo can also be used on thinly traveled trans-Atlantic service and Hawaii, routes that challenge the 739ER. This is an easy call: A321neo.

Replacing the MD-80 has been underway with American’s purchase of 737-800s, and American has already reduced the old airplane fleet by 100. Boeing could drop the price of the 737 even more to keep this business and with production ramp-up, deliveries can be accelerated. We think Boeing keeps this segment of the business.

Continental Airlines

An all Boeing customer with the naming of Gordon Bethune, a former Boeing exec, as CEO in the 1990s, Bethune is long gone and while many of his executives remain, Continental is now United Airlines with its large A319/A320 fleet and an order for A350s.

The Continental management displaced the United management but the lead fleet planner told us directly now that there is a mixed fleet, Airbus will be very much in contention for new airplane orders. The size of the combined carrier is a very different proposition than the size of Continental. The “new” United hasn’t issued an RFP yet but we give Airbus a solid chance to win orders from the formerly exclusive-Boeing Continental management.

Delta Air Lines

A similar situation to Continental exists but somewhat in reverse. Delta was a member of the exclusive suppliers club and Delta was an exclusive Boeing customer. But Delta acquired Northwest Airlines, a major Airbus operator. The old exclusive-Boeing Delta management is gone, however, replaced by the old Northwest management that ordered Airbuses. Relations between this management and Boeing at at rock-bottom, largely over the 787 delays. Delta hasn’t canceled the order but it may as well have–the deliveries have been pushed out to the 2020 decade, which is infinity in airline terms. Delta is Airbus’ to lose. There’s no exclusive supplier bias toward Boeing here.

Southwest Airlines

This would be the earthquake blow to Boeing if Southwest buys from another, and CEO Gary Kelly and his executive team have been telegraphing for some time they are prepared to do so.

Fuel reduction is very important to Southwest, as are strides in reducing the environmental impact of emissions. Now that Southwest is buying AirTran and a second fleet type is coming in the form of the Boeing 717 (nee MD-95), Southwest has mentally accepted that one fleet-commonality is history. (Actually it has been since the introduction of the 737NG in 1998; this aircraft is 80%-90% different than the 737 Classics also in Southwest’s fleet.)

Kelly and his offices have said they are prepared to operate a third fleet type, an acknowledgement that they will have no choice since any advanced airplane will be markedly different than the 737. On a short-term basis, Southwest may be prepared to operate a fourth type until one series can be retired.

Kelly has on several occasions said words to the effect, “Airbus has a solution; Bombardier has a solution; Boeing does not have a solution and waiting until 2019 isn’t a solution, it’s only a promise.”

Southwest isn’t especially keen on the A320neo solution because it is, after all, only a compromise airplane. Its promised EIS is late 2015 (with the first available delivery slots now in 2018 after the orgy of orders at the Paris Air Show), so availablility vis-a-vis the Boeing Promise is now only marginally better. If Airbus could delivery the neo from 2016 (a possibility if Airbus increases production rates again), Southwest might be ready to jump. We consider this still a long shot at the moment.

Bombardier is the only manufacturer with a new airplane and the CS300 is perfectly sized to replace 25 737-500s and the incoming 86 717s from AirTran.

BBD is now sold out into 2016, and it needs a 150-seat CS500 to be a serious contender to replace the 175 737-300s which carry 137 passengers in Southwest’s configuration. Southwest would like to upsize this airplane slightly and the CS300 can accommodate 149 passengers only by reducing seat pitch to 30 inches. This is OK for most airlines but Southwest is pretty firm that it wants 32 inches for passenger comfort.

A CS500 would require major investment by BBD and EIS wouldn’t be until 2017, reducing the interval to the Boeing Promise. Still, NPV analysis would be in BBD’s favor.

The outcome at Southwest: we think there is a reasonable chance BBD could win a CS300 order. The neo is probably longer odds because it is a compromise airplane. If Boeing re-engines, neo has no chance and a 737-700RE, which will (be) deficient on operating economics vs. CS300, will be close enough so that Southwest probably would stay in the family

Jeannot a écrit:Il est vrai que Leeham News a toujours été très pro-CSeries...

[Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien]

Delta Air Lines will make a decision on buying planes by the end of the year, its chief executive said.
"We'll make a fleet decision by the end of the year on mid-body replacement," CEO Richard Anderson said, adding that the decision would likely come before the US Thanksgiving holiday in late November.

He cited some weakness in the US economy but said Delta's forward bookings look strong.
"We're seeing some softening in the economy... the indicators aren't what you would like them to be," Anderson told reporters after the company's annual shareholder meeting. He said Europe's economy was where he sees the most weakness.
Delta, the number two air carrier behind United Continental, said earlier this week it expects a "solidly profitable" second quarter as higher revenues have for the most part offset rising fuel costs.

The airline sent a request (Sevrien : for proposal) to several plane makers late last year for proposals to deliver up to 200 planes to replace older models. Possible orders could include large, medium and small single-aisle planes to be used on US routes, Delta said earlier this year.

The head of Brazilian plane maker Embraer's commercial aviation unit told reporters last week at the Paris Air Show that he saw "good chances" of firm orders from Delta this year.

(Reuters)

Delta to buy stake in Aeromexico

Delta is to purchase 3.5 per cent of Aeromexico as it announces a long-term alliance and a new MRO joint venture with the Mexican airline.

Delta will invest $65m in the airline through the purchase of ordinary shares in its parent, Grupo Aeromexico.

The shares were reserved during the airline’s initial public offering (IPO) in April.

Under the MRO agreement, the pair will open a new maintenance facility in Mexico in 3Q 2013. Each will invest an equal amount into the project, which will service both their own and third-party airlines.

"The facility is a natural next step for the two airlines," said Delta’s president, Ed Bastian. "The MRO agreement will represent significant savings for our maintenance group.”

Following the share purchase, Delta will win a seat on Aeromexico's board of directors, and the two will share routes, flights codes, sales teams and other operations.

"The expanded relationship between Delta and Aeromexico comes at a key time in the history of Mexico's domestic aviation," said Jose Luis Barraza, chairman of Aeromexico's board of directors.

"The alliance with Delta that we've announced today will make history, and Grupo Aeromexico is proud to be a part of it."

The tentative deal, which was signed as an MoU, is subject to approval from Mexican regulators.

Delta to order 100 Boeing 737s: report

NEW YORK, Aug 22, 2011 (AFP)
Delta Air Lines confirmed Monday it was in negotiations to buy new aircraft, but declined to comment on a report that it was planning to buy 100 Boeing 737 planes.

© 2011 AFP

SEVRIEN a écrit:Bonsoir, chers tous !
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Rumeur : la Compagnie Delta Airlines aurait commandé, ou dit qu'elle avait commandé ou allait commandé 100 MC, mais a refusé de confirmer / infirmer / commenter le bien-fondé de la rumeur, selon laquelle il s'agirait de Boeing 737 !
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Lien :
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Delta to order 100 Boeing 737s: report

NEW YORK, Aug 22, 2011 (AFP)
Delta Air Lines confirmed Monday it was in negotiations to buy new aircraft, but declined to comment on a report that it was planning to buy 100 Boeing 737 planes.

© 2011 AFP

A suivre.

Replacing the 757

Delta Air Lines today announced its selection of the 737-900ER to replace its 757s. Within the US 757 fleet there are a number at American, United Airlines, Continental Airlines and US Airways that also will need replacing before long.
In order to understand why airlines are evaluating this now we looked into the running costs of the 757 from US DoT data.

[Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien]

As the chart illustrates, these airplanes are becoming ever-more expensive to operate. The industry average consists of all US-based 757 operators, including the packet freighters. As the trend line indicates, costs of operations are rising at a scary pace. The fluctuations are a reflection of the gyrations in fuel costs.
Taking the data a bit further, we see the following. As the next chart illustrates, fuel costs are driving 757 operator decision-making. Within the decade 757 operational costs have seen fuel impact go from ~40% to over 80% in the case of Delta. Given that virtually every analyst sees fuel prices remaining high, operating a 757 becomes less attractive quickly. Fares are unable to make the airplane work economically, particularly when considering that the less expensive 737-900 can do virtually anything the 757 can do within the US mainland operations.

[Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien]

In evaluating Delta’s decision on its 757 replacement, we compared Delta’s 757 costs with the industry and generated the following chart. Clearly fuel costs are the biggest driver in the decision.

[Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien]

Delta has a superb MRO operation in Atlanta that could have ensured these 757s operated at optimum performance, but fuel costs are driving the numbers here and the older 757s in particular, have reached a point where no MRO magic can overcome the fuel burn challenge.
The 757 was an airplane every operator loved – it is fast and has amazing range, especially with the addition of winglets. It was the first single-aisle airplane to fly across the North Atlantic in widespread use since the 707 and DC-8. (There have been some niche uses of the Boeing 727, 737 and even the old Caravelle.) Being a “small twin” makes this remarkable. It was relatively over powered, so pilots loved it – anyone flying one out of DCA knows what we mean. The climb rate is spectacular. But just as the economics of the 757 ensured the demise of the L1011 and DC-10 in US domestic service, so has the 737NG eclipsed the 757.
Checking the relative costs for airplanes competing for the 757 “space” leads to the following chart. As one can see the current A321 (no sharklets, non-neo) is outclassed by the 757 and the 737-900 in fuel burn terms. The interesting feature here is how closely the 737-900 starts to match the 757 fuel burn numbers from 2008. This underscores Boeing’s incessant tweaks to the 737 that ensure the 1965 design continues to compete effectively. The chart also shows why Airbus had little choice but to go for neo. The data suggests that Boeing’s assertions of the gap between its 737 and the A321 on fuel burn is significant – close to 10%. Of course the neo will change that.

[

url=https://servimg.com/view/13515116/3637][Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir cette image][/url]

Delta, in its PR announcing their 737-900ER order said: “As a result of maintenance efficiencies and a 15 to 20 percent improvement in fuel consumption per seat, the Boeing 737-900ER will have lower unit costs than the older technology Boeing 757 and 767 and Airbus A320 aircraft that it will replace.” So as we asserted above, fuel burn is the key driver in the Delta decision.

Did Delta get a 51% discount on its 737-900ER deal

[Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien]

Intrepid blogger Dan Webb detailed [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien] today, noting the inclusion of aircraft purchasing commitments for the 100 Boeing 737-900ERs the airline firmed up last week.

• Delta now has "total aircraft purchase commitments of $6.8 billion, including $55 million for the six months ending December 31, 2011, $210 million in 2012, $540 million in 2013, $760 million in 2014, $770 million in 2015, $780 million in 2016 and $3.7 billion after 2016."
  
• For comparison's sake, in its 10-Q Delta reported $2.6 billion in aircraft purchase commitments as of June 30. This number included $30 million in the second half of 2011, $70 million in 2012, and $2.5 billion from 2020 to 2022. Those figures "relate to 18 B-787-8 aircraft and 14 previously owned MD-90 aircraft."
  

With a quarterly growth of $4.2 billion in commitments adding in the newly-purchased 100 737-900ERs at a list price of $85.8 million, back-of-the-napkin math shows a 51% discount on each airframe and engine combination. What the shared revenue split between CFM and Boeing is, we'll never know, but for reference a pair of new CFM56-7B engines run at a list price $12 million.

Delta order indicative of urgent fleet needs

The recent order of 100 [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien]-900ERs by Delta Air Lines reflects an urgency by legacy carriers to replace ageing aircraft, but the airline's decision to go with the -900ER does not preclude it from being an operator of the re-engined 737 Max.

Delta, which first announced the order on 25 August, said separately in a regulatory filing on 30 August that it is cancelling 126 existing options for 737-800s in exchange for an additional 30 options for the -900ER, on top of the 100 firm orders.

The 126 -800 options had comprised 60 options and 66 rolling options, which are assigned delivery slots only when options expire or are exercised. Delta will take delivery of the -900ERs from 2013 through 2018.

The SkyTeam carrier announced the order just days before [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien] rolled out the re-engined 737 Max, which the airframer said has already garnered 496 commitments from five carriers.

American Airlines, which intends to purchase 100 re-engined 737s, with 60 options, will be one of the 737 Max launch customers. Boeing has declined to name the other airlines which have placed orders for the 737 Max, only saying that most are based outside the USA.

Analysts said Delta's order for the -900ER instead of the Max is due to its need to replace its older aircraft quickly, specifically its Boeing MD-88s. Delta has 117 MD-88s as of 30 June, with an average age of 21 years.

"Delta would want to replace them very soon," industry analyst George Hamlin said.

Noting the 73 737-800s that Delta already has in its fleet, Hamlin said it makes sense for the airline to go with the -900ER for similarities in cockpits.

The 737 Max is scheduled to be first delivered in 2017, a timeline that looks "less appealing" for Delta, Teal Group analyst Richard Aboulafia said.

Analyst Steve Hansen, with Raymond James, believes the debate surrounding the orders from Delta and other airlines indicates how "the macro environment is changing pretty rapidly, or at least it is being perceived as changing".

"A lot of North American legacies have obviously been flying old aircraft for a while so there is a point where they have to make those orders," said Hansen.

Boeing said it is open to talking to customers which want to switch to the Max, but Boeing Commercial Airplanes president and chief executive Jim Albaugh said he expects most of them to stick with the 737NG.

Delta plans no follow-on aircraft order anytime soon

Delta Air Lines has quashed speculation that it intends to place a second aircraft order following its decision last month to order 100 [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien]-900ERs.

Previously Delta had stated it could order up to 200 aircraft, and praised the technological advances offered by the [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien] CSeries.

But speaking on 13 September during the Deutsche Bank Aviation and Transportation Conference Delta President Ed Bastian clearly stated: "We are done talking about aircraft for the near to medium term."

Bastian acknowledged there has been a "lot of industry chatter" about a second tranche of aircraft being ordered, but "there's no second step of aircraft whether it be with Bombardier or [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien] or Boeing or Airbus. We're very comfortable with where we will be sitting for the next several years. I do want to put to rest any thought that we are in the market considering a new aircraft decision".

A major driver behind Delta's decision to cap aircraft orders at the 100 [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien] narrowbodies is keeping its capital expenditures in a $1.2-$1.4 billion band on an annual basis, explained Bastian.

He added Delta's goal is to generate operating cash flows of $3-$4 billion per year and take "that incremental two billion and pay down the balance sheet".

"We'll be talking in the future about aircraft," said Bastian. "But nothing in the next couple of years."

Delta Done With Aircraft Orders

Delta Air Lines is done with aircraft orders for “the next couple of years,” President Ed Bastian said today, quashing speculation that an order for smaller, single-aisle aircraft remains in the offing.

“We are done talking about aircraft for the near to medium term,” Bastian said in a presentation at the Deutsche Bank Aviation & Transportation Conference. “We are very comfortable where we sit on our fleet.”

“I do want to put to rest any thought we’re in the market on a new aircraft decision,” he added.

Delta’s decision that its recent order for 100 Boeing 737-900ER aircraft is sufficient for its narrowbody fleet renewal could have a significant impact on Bombardier, which loses a potential near-term customer for the CSeries. It also could affect Embraer’s decision on whether to develop an aircraft larger than its E-190 and E-195 jets, although Embraer Executive VP Paulo Cesar de Souza e Silva already said in late August that he did not expect a decision from Delta on a smaller narrowbody for at least a year.

Bastian’s comments break Delta’s near silence on the issue when it announced its 737-900ER order last month, which led to the speculation given that an order for smaller narrowbodies also had been expected. Bastian referred to the talk as “a lot of industry chatter about a second tranche of aircraft renewal.”

Delta remains focused on reducing its adjusted net debt, which stood at $13.8 billion at the end of June, to $10 billion by 2013. In connection with that goal, it wants to keep annual capital expenditures at $1.2 billion to $1.4 billion, including all aircraft acquisitions. In his Sept. 13 remarks on the fleet, Bastian emphasized the airline’s desire to stay within those limits.

In late August, Delta announced an order for 100 Boeing 737-900ER aircraft to replace aging domestic narrowbodies starting in the second half of 2013 and running through 2018—an order with an $8.5 billion list price that will make Delta the second-largest operator 737-900ER operator in the world. But that is only half the number of single-aisle replacements Delta said it was considering when it issued a request for proposals in late 2010: at that point, the airline talked about the “potential replacement” of 100 to 200 large, medium and small narrowbodies, with options for as many as 200 more, to replace its aging Airbus A320s, DC-9-50s and 757-200s.

Bastian also revealed Sept. 13 that Delta is planning for a 2-3% year-over-year reduction in its 2012 capacity. He did not specify where those cuts might be made.

Delta is reducing its fourth-quarter 2011 capacity by 4-5%, making the largest cuts on its transatlantic services (down 10-12%). It is reducing its fourth-quarter capacity by 1-3% for both domestic and Pacific services, but increasing it by 3-5% for Latin America services.

An uncertain global economy and a deep sense of caution among aircraft buyers may result in Bombardier missing sales targets for its new C-Series regional jet, an analyst said on Thursday.

Bombardier, the world's third biggest commercial plane maker, may not meet its target of selling 300 of the narrow-body, 110- to 135-seat aircraft by the time they enter service late in 2013, RBC Capital Markets analyst Walter Spracklin said.

"While we were encouraged by the interest the airlines demonstrated in the C-Series, there was certainly a lack of urgency to place significant new orders," Spracklin said in a note to clients.

"Combine this with the emerging macro headwinds, we believe airlines are more inclined to delay their renewal programmes," he said after conducting a survey of 26 potential C-Series customers.

The 26 possible customers represent an estimated 35 percent of the 100- to 149-seater aircraft market in operation globally today, Spracklin said.

Bombardier's stock shrugged off the report rising 15 Canadian cents, or 3.5 percent, to C$4.35 on the Toronto Stock Exchange on Thursday. The stock was recovering from a slump on Wednesday on news that Delta Air Lines, a potential major customer, was no longer in the market to buy more planes.

Meanwhile, Pratt & Whitney, the makers of a new turbofan engine for the C-Series, said the engine had "operated flawlessly" during its first flight test, allowing tests scheduled for 2012 to be carried out early.

"Results confirmed our earlier sea level test findings validating the geared turbofan's overall engine design," said Bob Saia, vice-president of next generation product at Pratt.

The C-Series is central to Bombardier's ambitious USD$3 billion plan to build its biggest regional commercial aircraft yet, at a time when the market for smaller planes is shrinking. The fuel-efficient C-Series will compete with the smaller aircraft from industry giants Airbus and Boeing.

Despite promises that the C-Series' operating costs will be 15 percent lower than those of similar aircraft, potential buyers are edgy about a new, untested plane that is different from their existing fleets, RBC analyst Spracklin said.

"Overwhelmingly, the costs and complexity associated with introducing a new aircraft type into their fleet was the number one hurdle facing their decision to purchase C-Series," he said.

Orders for the C-Series, which now total 133, are likely to remain small, around the 10-aircraft level that has characterised existing orders, Spracklin said.

(Reuters)

Yesterday came the press release confirming Delta's order for 100 B737-900ER

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These will delivered between 2013 and 2018 and there is no mentioning of a possibility to switch to the reengined variant.
In the press release Delta stresses a fuel burn advantage of 15-20% against the B757, B767 and the A320. If fuel is responsible for about 40% of your cash operating costs, this is big and results in 6-8% lower COC's. But to be competitive, Delta has to look what the competitors will do, especially the low cost carriers, which have lower COC's to begin with.
Virgin America and jetblue have ordered the A320neo
. Virgin America will take their first delivery in 2016, jetblue will get their first "neo" later, in 2017, after their last "classic" A320 arrived. As jetblue changed some of their A320 orders over to the A321, it is not unlikely that they will also take some A321neo's as part of their A320 neo order.
So let us compare the fuel burn per trip and per passenger of the B737-900ER, the A320neo and the A321neo and look at typical mission ranges. According to jetblue's monthly traffic statistics, the average trip length of all flights is around 1100nm. The average trip length in Virgin America's network is around 1400nm. And I also looked at flight at a 500nm trip length.
Delta will fly the B737-900ER with 180 seats, the typical 2-class layout of this aircraft.
jetblue has 150 seats in their A320's, the A321 can seat 185 with the same comfort level (read: seat pitch).
Virgin America has a 3-class layout (8/12/129) with 149 seats overvall.
The A320neo will seat 153, as the layout in the aft cabin changes, but I for the "per seat" charts I used 150 passengers for now.

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Fuel burn/trip for the B737-900ER, A320neo and the A321neo

The fuel burn/trip difference between the B737-900ER and the A321neo is not that big for a short mission, as the higher weight of the Airbus is somewhat negating the more efficient neo engines. But as the trip length gets longer, the B737-900ER gets heavier compared to the A321neo, as it has to carry more and more fuel.

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Fuel burn/seat of the A320neo and A321neo relative to the B737-900ER

The fuel burn/seat difference between the A320neo and the B737-900ER is more or less negligible for short routes, but on typical routes that Virgin America flies it extends to more than 6%.
The A321neo, offering a comparable capacity as the B737-900ER, is almost 9% more fuel efficient even on short routes and that extends to more than 10% on typical jetblue routes.

What does that mean for COC? Given that fuel costs are 40% of COC, Virgin America has an edge of 2.4% from the fuel burn/passenger, jetblue (with an A321neo) would have 4% lower COC just through the fuel burn difference.

And, even worse for Delta, their operating costs ex fuel, are much higher than costs at jetblue (Virgin America is not publicly traded, so they do not have to publish their cost spreadsheets, but their costs ex fuel should be comparable to those of jetblue).

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CASM ex fuel for Delta Air Lines and jetblue according to 10-Q Reports

So, very clearly, the Delta's move from the B757 to the B737-900ER is a big step forward in terms of fuel consumption as a recent post from AirInsight explains - but the competition seems to be just another step ahead once Delta has all these aircraft in the fleet.