Emirates : EK : UAE

A graphic representation of both the arrival and departure movements over the course of a day gives an even better impression of the tidal character of the arrival and departure banks within the operation:

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In the above graphs, the x-axis contains the time of the day and the y-axis represents the total number of weekly movements within that time frame

At Emirates, the operational day starts with a departure bank between 2 and 4am. This bank is fed by a corresponding arrivals bank that starts before midnight the previous day and consists largely of inbound traffic from the airline’s European network. The 2 – 4am departure bank consists of the following flights

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A lot of the flights in this departure bank are Asia bound, and carry Europe-originating traffic.

Shortly after the end of this departure wave, Emirates’ main arrival wave of the day is starting. The 4 – 7am arrival bank sees inbound traffic from the entire EK network and will feed into the ensuing main departure wave. Not surprisingly, right around 5am, the DXB airport starts getting very busy. Here is an overview of the inbound traffic of the 4 – 7am arrival wave:

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After all of this inbound traffic, a new departure wave ensues. The 7 – 11am departure is the airline’s main departure event of the day. Virtually all European destinations are served from this bank, which also caters to North American and African destinations. Towards the end of this wave, a number of Australia bound flights are scheduled. The exact contents of this departure grid are as follows:

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At 11am, a new, smaller arrival movement starts. This smaller arrivals bank caters to the afternoon secondary European departure wave and carries mainly traffic from Asia and the region. Most of this traffic allows for a daylight trip between the East and Europe. Arrivals in this bank are the following:

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The secondary European departure wave starts at 2pm and also contains traffic for a number of African destinations. While nowhere nearly as busy as the morning departure grid, this wave is sure to see additional traffic in the future as an increasing number of European and African destinations receive reinforced frequencies. Weekly movements of the 2 – 5pm departure bank:

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At 5pm, the quietest hours of the EK DXB operation start. There are relatively few arrivals and departures, and the airline is operating a handful of regional and Indian flights to provide connectivity to some of the inbound North American flights between 7 and 8pm. While the airline is awaiting the main arrivals bank later in the evening, the following limited arrivals and departures take place:

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The last main event of the day is at the same time the start of the new operational day: from 10pm onwards, DXB is receiving a large number of arrivals, mainly from Europe, but also from Africa and Asia, which will feed into the 2 – 4am departure wave which started this overview. The last arrivals of the day as well as the first arrivals of the next day are as follows:

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A superposition of the arrival and departure movements results in the following graphical representation of the total number of weekly EK movements at Dubai:

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While the separate figures for arrival and departure movements, which were inserted earlier, give a good idea of the different waves of inbound and outbound traffic and how these waves flow into each other, the aggregate figure above clearly shows the degree of operational activity at the airline’s home base.

DXB is at its busiest between 6am and 10am when the airline’s main overnight arrivals bank morphs into its main morning departure bank. The second busiest period is between midnight and 2am, when an identical move, albeit largely in the opposite direction takes place. The graph also clearly illustrates the smaller afternoon arrival and departure waves and the relative hibernation of DXB between the hours of 5 and 10pm.

Given the graph above, some may believe that future growth of the Emirates operational model will be situated in those quieter times of the day, yet it is clear that that will not be the case. A similar graph of EK’s arrival and departure movements in 5 years from now is likely to have largely the same shape, as the airline is more or less stuck with its own Hub and Spoke model. Additional departures will be added to existing departure banks so as to provoke optimal feed. In the same way, additional arrival traffic will be located in the existing arrivals banks to provide optimal connectivity.

Furthermore, geographical elements dictate a number of schedule characteristics and the airline has little or no means to break out of these patterns if it wants to be able to offer competitive and commercially viable schedule options to its passengers. As such, any new European destinations will almost certainly depart from the 7-11am bank and arrive in the midnight bank. Growth to existing European destinations will be established by adding secondary frequencies in the afternoon departure bank, which in turn makes the already busy early morning departure bank even busier. Apart from that, the airline will also resort to aircraft up-gauges, which allow to grow capacity without adding arrival or departure movements within the busiest periods of the day.

Part II:
Analysis of the Emirates’ Fleet Operational Characteristics

As Emirates is building its network and increasing its traffic volumes, there have been a number of remarkable developments in its fleet deployment policy. In order to get a better insight into the airline’s fleet strategy, one has to start by taking a close look at the exact flying program of each fleet component and the operational characteristics arising from those flying programs.

The flight program of this analysis is sustained by a fleet of 145 aircraft comprising 29 Airbus A330-200s (332), 8 Airbus A340-300s (343), 10 Airbus A340-500s (345), 13 Airbus A380-800s (388), 9 Boeing B777-200A/200ERs (772), 12 Boeing B777-300As (773), 10 Boeing B777-200LRs (77L) and 54 Boeing B777-300ERs (77W).

Some of these groups of aircraft are featuring different on board configurations, which typically complicate the operational organization and as such tend to bring down utilization rates and increase the risk for operational irregularities because of lower inherent back up capacity. For the purpose of this basic operational research, these configuration differences will initially not be taken into account.

The A332 was once a very important component of the EK fleet, covering destinations as far as Australia. However, this preeminence is no longer there, and when looking at the flying program of this fleet component, one gets the distinct impression that this aircraft type has been relegated to mostly regional routes:

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While the A332 is still serving a number of secondary destinations in Europe as well as a number of second frequencies to other European destinations, the chunk of its flying program is on regional flights within the Middle East and to and from the peninsula.

The result of this relocation of A332 equipment has been a dramatic drop in average daily utilization of this subfleet and one wonders whether this in turn is dictating the airline’s apparent inactivity when it comes to cabin refurbishments for these aircraft. It has been rumored that a part of the 29-strong A332 fleet will soon leave the airline’s active fleet.

For the current flying program, all 29 aircraft are however supposed to be operational with the following operational characteristics:

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The most striking element of the A332 operation is its very low average cycle length. At just 3 hours 32 minutes, the A332 is flying sectors that are far below the typical mission it was designed for. Among some of the larger A332 operators, EK is definitely deploying its fleet with some of the shortest average stage lengths.

A natural consequence of shorter cycles, is a decrease of utilization rates. While an average daily utilization of just above 12 hours is still respectable, it makes the aircraft slightly underused when compared to international standards. In view of the respectable size of this fleet component, EK should be able to easily squeeze utilization rates of around 13.5 hours out of its A332 fleet.

All in all, the A332 fleet seems to be underused and not used on the type of missions it was designed for. EK could easily open a couple of secondary European stations with the spare A332 capacity it has inherently available.

With just 8 aircraft, the leased A343 armada is an oddball in the Emirates fleet, but the airline seems to nevertheless hold on to these aircraft for which it has found a number of niche markets in which the A343 is apparently right sized. The A343s flight program is as follows:

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The A343 is serving a number of European destinations apart from select flights to Africa and Asia. Its flying program is further filled with a number of regional flights. The operational characteristics pertaining to these flights are the following:

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With an average daily aircraft utilization of above 13 hours, Emirates is positioning itself around industry standards for a fleet of this type. The average cycle length is 6.5 hours, which seems short for this aircraft type, but the number of actual longhaul flights for which this aircraft type was designed is limited in the EK operation, and the airline has more suitable equipment to operate these flights.

It is safe to say that the A343 is not a strategic and long term component of the Emirates fleet and its relatively small fleet size makes the aircraft rather insignificant and even invisible in the airline’s global operation.

The most striking example of changing priorities in fleet planning at Emirates is exemplified by the airline’s 10-strong fleet of ultra longhaul Airbus A340-500 aircraft. Once hailed as the airline’s flagship and deployed on some of its most prestigious ultra longhaul nonstops, this aircraft has now been relegated to a secondary role with very similar characteristics to those of the A343 fleet.

The exact flying program for the A345 looks like this:

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With the exception of a single Brisbane roundtrip, the A345 does not fly a single mission for which it was actually designed. Gone are the days of the nonstop New York, Sydney and Melbourne trips, and the radically changing flying program has equally radically changed this subfleet’s operational characteristics:

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While the airline remains capable of extracting 13.5 hours of average daily utilization out of this fleet component, it is worth noticing that this number is down from a utilization of over 16 hours just a couple of years ago. The current average daily utilization is below what the aircraft was designed for and is indicative of the dramatically changing average stage length of the flying program.

With average cycle times of just 6.5 hours, the A345 has been moved away from segments for which is was designed, and it seems therefore that the airline is merely using this aircraft to fill its schedule rather than assigning it to the role it was designed for. This aircraft type should perform average sector lengths of 14 hours and above.

It seems as if there is little future left for the A345 at EK. With a flying program containing SEZ, DAR and KRT, its glory days are certainly over.

The Airbus A380 has rapidly become the new flagship of the Emirates fleet. With 13 aircraft in the fleet by December and tens more still on order, this aircraft will at some point move the chunk of EK traffic through its network. The proposed flying program for the A388 next December contains the following flights:

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A lot has been said about the EK’s deployment of the A388, but the airline seems to move the aircraft where it needs the capacity, without necessarily making use of its full operational capabilities.

Here is what the operational characteristics look like:

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With an average daily utilization of 14 hours 28 minutes, the A388 fleet is well used. Even if an additional aircraft is added to operate this flying program, the fleet will still be very well used, and this high proposed utilization speaks for the airline’s confidence in its young A388 fleet, which is likely displaying very solid dispatch reliability levels.

At just over 7.5 hours, the average stage length for the A388s flying program may seem smallish, but, as mentioned, the airline is deploying the aircraft where it needs the capacity without necessarily making use of its full range capabilities. Furthermore, the geographical position of the Dubai hub is such that there are but a limited number of real longhaul flights, as represented by an network wide average stage length of just 5 hours 44 minutes for the entire Emirates flying program.

As more aircraft of this type are added, one may expect operational characteristics to remain pretty stable. Utilization will remain high, while sector length will be over average within the airline but rather small for international standards for A388 operations.

The 9-strong Boeing B777-200 fleet, featuring both ER and non-ER models, is deployed on missions that are similar to those of the A332 fleet, but are atypical for what one would normally expect of this aircraft type. This subfleet is rather small and does not play a very significant role in the airline’s worldwide operation. Its proposed flying program is as follows:

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While the aircraft is taking care of a number of off-peak European roundtrips, it is otherwise deployed mainly in the regional sectors and this type of scheduling is impacting both the utilization and average stage length for these aircraft

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At almost 13 hours, these aircraft are used at levels just below international standards. The fleet is not purposely underused, but the utilization rates are what they are because of the high cycle numbers and low average stage lengths. The average B772 cycle lasts just under 4 hours, which is far below international standards and even below averages for the entire EK network. It goes to show that EK is deploying these aircraft typically on shorter sectors.

Of all the fleet components, the 12-strong B773A fleet is displaying the most average operational deployment in the EK fleet. Both its average daily utilization rates and average sector lengths are nearly identical to those of the entire Emirates fleet. The 12 aircraft of this type will be deployed on the following flights come December:

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The B773A is deployed to a number of medium haul destinations in Europe, Asia and Africa as well as on a number of high density regional routes that need the additional capacity provided by this aircraft type.

Operational characteristics are as follows:

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At over 14 hours of daily utilization, the B773s in EK’s fleet are rather well used. The average sector length stands at 5 hours 30 minutes, which is right around the average for the entire Emirates flying program. That number is rather low for international standards, but, as mentioned above, EK does not have all that many real longhaul routes, and the airline does also not operate any narrowbodies to its regional destinations. The absence of narrowbodies is inevitably bringing down utilization levels and average stage lengths for certain components of the widebody fleet.

]With just 10 aircraft in the fleet, and with no apparent plans for additional aircraft of this type, Emirates is squeezing a lot of utilization out of its fleet of long range B77Ls. This aircraft has all but taken over the missions that were previously designed for the A345 and is operating some of the very longest flights in the EK flying program:

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Apart from the ultra long haul flights, Emirates is complementing the flight program of these aircraft with a limited number of medium and shorthaul flights. The airline could, however, add additional ultra longhaul flights with the existing B77L fleet if the need were to arise. A detailed discussion later pertaining to the daily deployment of this fleet will make that point clear.

The operational characteristics of the B77L fleet are as follows:

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In typical ULH style, these aircraft are high in utilization, high in average stage length yet low in operated cycles. The aircraft are clearly deployed for the types of missions they were designed for. For a detailed micro-level review of the B77L operation, refer to section II.3.

With 54 aircraft in the active fleet next December, the B77W is the current main stay of the Emirates fleet, and the aircraft is deployed on a wide variety of missions to all parts of the EK network. The airline seems to be very content with this aircraft type and plans to add quite some more units. The extensive flight program of the B77W in its various cabin configurations is as follows:

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In addition to its core flying program on trunk routes to Europe, Asia, Australia and Africa, Emirates has been pioneering the use of the B77W on some of its ultra long haul flights. As such the B77W is now seen operating nonstop routes to the US West Coast, Brazil and Australia and there are indications that Emirates will continue to deploy the B77W on these kinds of missions.

The operational characteristics of the B77Ws flight program are summarized below:

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The large B77W fleet is displaying an impressive average daily utilization, which is on par with that obtained by an airline like KLM, which is known for very high utilization levels, and above B77W utilization rates of other large operators of this type such as Air France, Singapore Airlines and Cathay Pacific.

In contrast with the aforementioned airlines, however, the average stage length of B77W flights at EK is a smallish 6 hours 52 minutes, which is above the average for the entire EK operation, but well below industry standards. Here again, one notices some of the effects of an all widebody fleet, which provokes the use of wide body equipment on atypical shorter sectors.

The B77W will remain the backbone of the Emirates fleet for another couple of years and its operational characteristics within the airline’s operation are unlikely to change very much. As no more ULH aircraft are currently on order, one may expect the B77W to be deployed on some future route with block times well above 12 hours.

II.2. Comparison of Operational Characteristics for different Fleet Types

As discussed above for each of the different fleet components, Emirates has over the past couple of years made some radical changes to its fleet deployment policies. The arrival of the B77W has pushed the A332 and B772 fleets increasingly towards the regional network. In the same way, the B77L has relegated to A345 to missions that are outside of what is was designed for.

These strategic decisions have first and foremost had some consequences for the average daily utilization rates of the different fleet components. The following is an overview of both absolute and relative utilization rates:

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The table above lists, for each fleet component, its size (number of aircraft) as well as its relative size in the entire fleet. The next block recapitulates the total weekly utilization, and then states the relative utilization of each fleet component as part of the total network wide utilization.

The ratio util:size column lists the ratio of the relative utilization to the relative fleet size of each fleet component. This number is indicative of the relative utilization of each aircraft type with ratios above 100 being relatively overused versus ratios below 100 being relatively underused when compared within this operation.

The final column list the average daily utilization for each fleet component as already discussed in the previous paragraphs.

Apart from the remarks made before for individual fleet components, this table clearly illustrates how the A332 fleet is relatively underused, both in absolute and relative terms. EK could easily squeeze more utilization out of this fleet and this observation is reinforced by the relatively large fleet size of 29 units, which guarantees operational stability and reliability even at utilization rates above 14 hours. The frequent remarks that EK does not have the capacity to rapidly open new stations to cover for gaps in its network seem somewhat specious in light of these observations.

As stated above, the B772 fleet is also ever so slightly underused, but not to the same extent as the A332. In comparison to international standards though, this fleet is indeed displaying low utilization levels.

The A343, A345, A388 and B773 fleet are scheduled with pretty normal utilization rates, both within the EK fleet and in comparison to international standards of airline operations. Their ratio scores are in the vicinity of 100.

With utilization ratio scores of well over 100, the B77L and B77W fleets are clearly scheduled above average in terms of daily utilization. It is not surprising that these aircraft are also some of the newer additions to the EK fleet, and are displaying very satisfactory dispatch reliability levels. Utilization rates of over 15 hours are world leading and are typically only achieved by high quality carriers who have their act together in every aspect of their operational organization.

As already mentioned a couple of times before, the discussion of average daily utilization rates as an operational indicator has to be looked at in view of EK’s unique position as a wide body-only operator. The absence of narrow bodied aircraft implies that the airline’s shorthaul sectors need to be carried out by widebody equipment, although such missions are normally atypical for those types of aircraft. Regional and shorthaul flight operations tend to increase the aircraft’s ground time in between flights, hence decreasing utilization rates, increasing total number of cycles and decreasing average stage lengths.

As indicated on the bottom line of the table above, for its entire operation of 145 aircraft, Emirates is achieving an aggregate average daily utilization rate of 14 hours 16 minutes. That number is very respectable, because, while the widebody fleets of other major airlines may actually display higher utilization levels, when the narrow body fleets are brought into the equation, fleet wide utilization levels are dropping below those of EK.

To fully comprehend the fleet wide operational characteristics, one has to also look at a comparative table of average stage lengths for different fleet types:

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This table is very similar to the one before. It re-lists the absolute and relative fleet sizes of each fleet component, followed by the absolute and relative number of cycles performed by each of those aircraft. The ratio of relative cycles to relative fleet size is indicative of what is the typical cycle length within the airline’s operation. The higher the number, the shorter the average sector this aircraft type operates. This ratio is standardized to a score of 100.

The high ratio scores of the A332 and B772 fleet are indicative of the very short average stage lengths of these aircraft compared to the average stage length for the entire airline. As discussed above, these aircraft have been moved to mostly regional routes provoking these kinds of operational characteristics.

The B77L fleet is displaying a ratio score of just 54, indicating exceptionally long average cycle lengths in comparison to the fleet wide averages. The B77L is deployed on relatively few sectors with relatively high average length. Such a low score increases the likelihood of operational irregularities to arise and the only way to operate a stable operation with these indicators is by deploying an aircraft type with a very high dispatch reliability rate. The B77L is such an aircraft and EK is obtaining a dispatch reliability of well over 99% out of these aircraft.

As discussed above, the overall average stage length for the airline’s entire operation is just 5 hours 44 minutes, which seems short for an wide body operation, but because of the absence of narrow body equipment, the airline is deploying wide body capacity on regional routes, bringing down the average stage length numbers. The numbers are in this respect not comparable to European and US airlines.

II.3. Detailed Operational Analysis for selected Fleet Types

An operational analysis is not complete without some flow charts pertaining to the deployment of individual aircraft throughout the network. A complete overview for the entire Emirates operation would be lengthy and space consuming, but the flow charts of the deployment of select aircraft types provides a nice illustration of how the aircraft cycle through the network and are as such integral part of the operational flow.

Below is an illustrative diagram representing the flow chart of the entire A388 operation. The chart indicates arrival and departure times of individual roundtrips from the DXB hub and how they fit in the entire schedule for this aircraft type. The resulting pattern illustrates how aircraft cycle through the network.

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It is important to stress that this diagram provides a mere illustration of a potential operational patterns for this fleet component. Obviously, there are a very large number of degrees of freedom that allow the airline to interchange certain aircraft at certain times of the day, so the flow chart above represents just one of thousands of patterns, and the airline’s Operations Control Center will assign aircraft to certain routes based on the day’s particular dynamics. No two days are ever the same in airline operations and the diagram above clearly demonstrates where aircraft swaps are possible in case of irregular operations.

While the A388 operational setup caters for healthy sets of grounds times at the DXB homebase, it is worth noting that there are very few if any extended ground times that would allow for a permanent spare capacity to be available. It is clear then that any serious operational irregularities, which would require the temporary grounding of one of the airframes in this sub fleet will inevitably lead to escalating operational issues. Emirates can, however, get around these issues by deploying different equipment to stations such as LHR and CDG. LHR has in the past seen a number of B77W subs because of irregular A388 operations and the presence of LHR in the A388 operations is not only a commercial necessity but also an operationally stabilizing factor.

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Again, the above flowchart is merely illustrative and does in no way represent the unique way in which the airline’s 10-strong B77L fleet moves through its network. The operational setup of this subfleet caters for even more operational degrees of freedom than that of the A388 operation above, and there are thousands of alternative layouts to the one illustrated in the figure.

In comparison with the A388 flow chart, it is clear that the B77L operation includes more extensive DXB ground times. These prolonged ground times are essential to ensure a stable operation. This subfleet is not only relatively small, but it is also operating some of the longest sectors in the schedule, and this combination makes for a heightened susceptibility to operational irregularities to escalate throughout the network.

The airline has included a number of shorter flights in the flying schedule of this subfleet, not only to fill up holes in its schedule, but also to increase operational stability. In case of irregular operations, the Operations Control Center could, for instance, easily take the AMS rotation out of the program and replace it with B77W equipment, thereby almost immediately stabilizing the B77L operation.

The above flow charts are not only illustrative for the dynamics of an international airline operation, but they also testify to the professionalism of the people behind the scenes of the Emirates operation, which is run by some of the best and brightest in the industry.

Part III:
Concluding Remarks

Emirates of Dubai may be as enigmatic as it is mesmerizing to those outsiders who may be aviation enthusiasts but are not engaged in the daily running of an airline. While there may be legitimate questions about some aspects of this airline, it is clear that from an operational perspective, Emirates has surrounded itself with sufficient know how to build a stable operation which adequately caters to its customers.

The Emirates operation is built up consistently and with the necessary symmetry to extract as much advantage out of the Hub and Spoke model as possible. With the addition of each new aircraft to the operational setup, extra demand will be provoked because of the unique commercial characteristics of the Hub and Spoke model.

So far, this model seems to work for the airline, but, apart from some commercial risks, the airline is facing operational issues pertaining to over saturation of its hub operation around peak times. The preeminent challenge facing the airline will be to strike an adequate balance between commercial and operational viability and without a doubt, the airline’s future fleet decision have been taken with those elements in mind.

For those aviation enthusiasts and professionals who like to engage in operational analysis behind the scenes of the airline, Emirates and is and will remain one of the most interesting case studies in the industry.

Dubai's Emirates Airlines to Purchase 120 Airbus A380s

Dubai-based carrier Emirates Airlines announced Tuesday it plans to purchase 120 Airbus A380s. Emirates is also working with Boeing to replace its fleet of 777s.

President Tim Clark told [Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir ce lien] in an interview: "Emirates, whose passengers are growing at 20 percent annually and expects to maintain this level for the next five years, will fulfill all its 90 orders so far for the A380 superjumbo."

Emirates wanted to order 120 up front, but Airbus said it did not have enough space for the order, so a compromise of 90 was made.

The additional 30 will be ordered at a later date. If Emirates goes ahead with its growth plans it could have an A380 fleet worth over $40 billion.

Emirates pourrait commander 30 Airbus A380

La compagnie aérienne de Dubaï affiche une santé insolente et envisage de se doter d'une flotte de 120 A380, elle en détient déjà 90.[Vous devez être inscrit et connecté pour voir cette image]
Emirates voit grand. La compagnie aérienne de Dubaï qui compte près de 90 A380 envisage de se doter d'une flotte de près de 120 appareils. Dans une interview accordée à l'agence Reuters, le président de la compagnie aérienne, Tim Clark, a indiqué : «Nous avons besoin de 120 appareils. Nous n'avons pas pu les commander, car cela faisait trop pour ici, l'aéroport actuel de Dubai». La volonté d'expansion de la compagnie aérienne est donc, pour l'heure, bridée par un manque d'espace à l'aéroport de Dubaï.
Le groupe de transport aérien avait déjà surpris le secteur en juin en annonçant une augmentation de près d'un tiers de sa commande d'A380 pour la porter à 90 exemplaires.
La compagnie de Dubaï affiche une santé presque insolente. La croissance annuelle du trafic passager s'élève à 20%, un rythme qu'Emirates compte maintenir sur les cinq ans à venir.
Une croissance qui profite aux avionneurs et en premier lieu à Airbus. La compagnie est en effet l'un des principaux clients de la filiale d'EADS. Emirates travaille parallèlement avec Boeing sur la nouvelle génération du 777.
A la tête d'une commande près de 200 gros porteurs, elle pourrait devenir le première compagnie aérienne au monde. De quoi inquiéter ses concurrents. La croissance rapide d'Emirates, mais aussi celles d'Etihad à Abu Dhabi ou de Qatar Airways, provoquent des tensions avec les grandes compagnies aériennes et les accusations mutuelles de protectionnisme se multiplient.